A calm and pleasant Thursday, tracking a big storm this weekend
Overnight showers dissipate into Thursday morning. Most of the area only saw trace amounts of rain, and by the time most people leave for work, the entire area will be dry. Behind this weak front is some warmer air, meaning temperatures will warm into a pleasant upper 60s and lower 70s. While temperatures will be pleasant, clouds will be stubborn in the morning hours before decreasing by the afternoon. It will be a nice day for a walk on the beach, but avoid getting into the water as The National Weather Service has issued a High Surf Advisory. Northern Santa Barbara Counties and San Luis Obispo could see 7-11FT waves where Ventura county could see 5-8FT. This advisory will expire by Friday morning, but you'll still want to avoid the beach as active weather arrives this weekend.
Friday will be pleasant and mild. Skies will be cloudy and gloomy to start the morning but will slowly clear by the evening. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than Thursday but still pretty pleasant, into the middle to upper 60s. Clouds will build back in overnight as the next storm approaches.
Timing with this storm system appears to be tricky. Some data shows the storm moving in Saturday and other models show most of the rain arriving Sunday morning. Usually, most data would be in better agreement about timing and amounts but it looks as though models are struggling to predict the outcome. Theres such a wide variance in rain amounts and timing that it is hard to say for sure, but using data from some of the more accurate runs, it is likely the first very weak storm will bring some light rain and gusty winds by Saturday night into the very early hours of Sunday. From there the second and more impactful storm follows behind, arriving Sunday night into Monday. The rain looks to continue all day Monday and Tuesday with heavier rain Tuesday evening. Keep in mind, this is a rough estimate and models may speed things up or slow them down. The National Weather Service is stating there will be around 2-5 inches of rain with this system and I agree with that statement. Most rain will fall in Ventura and south facing beaches, and it is very likely smaller roads will flood, and mudslides may occur. Winds will be strong and up to advisory thresholds with this storm as well, causing the worry of downed trees and power lines. While rain amounts may not be record breaking, this storm will still bring moderate to high impacts. Rain looks to continue Wednesday and Thursday, but will likely be less intense as Sunday into Monday.
