Light overnight showers ahead of a clearer Thursday
Cloud cover is being particularly stubborn this Valentine's Day. Overnight, there is a slight chance of rain showers on the Central Coast, but rain will likely stop short of the South Coast. Totals will measure to just a few hundredths of an inch in northern areas.
Thursday will be mostly dry with periods of clouds and sun. Low temperatures will mostly be in the 40s, with a few coastal areas only dropping to the low 50s. High temperatures will be in the 60s.
There is a high surf advisory from 3:00 am Thursday to 9:00 am Friday on the Central and Ventura County coasts. Waves will be 7 to 11 feet and 4 to 7 feet respectively. Rip currents will be very strong.
A small ridge of high pressure will build in the second part of Thursday and persist into Friday. Low clouds may be more limited because of a weak and temporary turn to offshore flow.
The ridge will exit eastward on Saturday, and then conditions will change drastically. An upper low west of Seattle, and a second one west of San Francisco will bring a prolonged period of rainfall.
Clouds will increase through Saturday until the first system brings light to moderate rain showers begin in the afternoon, lasting through Sunday morning. Temperatures will cool down a few degrees as well.
There may be a lull in rainfall for part of Sunday. Models are disagreeing somewhat on the track and timing of the second system. In general, the system is expected to arrive Sunday night and last through Monday. Lighter showers may linger Tuesday and even Wednesday.
There may be periods of heavy rainfall. Most rain rates will be a half inch to one inch per hour. There is a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms, during which times rain rates could be heavier.
The duration and track of the storm will have significant impacts on rain totals. Right now, most projections show 2 to 5 inches in coastal areas, and 5 to 8 inches in mountains and foothills. In our region, the South Coast is looking to have higher rain totals than the Central Coast. Snow will fall above 7,000 feet.
With high rain totals in a storm closely following the recent damaging storms, there is a higher risk of flooding and trees will be prone to falling from soil saturation. Wind speeds will be less than the previous storm, but still impactful. Mud and rock slides are likely on mountain roads. High surf will be an issue for all beach areas.
