First of back-to-back rain systems will arrive late Wednesday
The weather is continuing to turn more wintery as we head towards midweek. Offshore flow is gradually flipping back onshore, which will allow more low clouds to move in to the coast.
Temperatures will also cool Wednesday ahead of an approaching system. Lows will be in the 40s. Highs will mostly be in the low to mid 60s - coolest near the coast.
An atmospheric river is bringing much moisture to the West Coast midweek. Rain showers will reach our Central Coast by the late afternoon or early evening Wednesday. Overnight, showers will work south and east, and will be heaviest in Ventura County between 2:00 and 7:00 am Thursday.
This first storm will bring several hours of moderate rainfall with rain rates between a third and two thirds of an inch per hour. Isolated cells could reach up to 1 inch an hour. Most instability is looking to occur over coastal waters, but there is still a chance of thunderstorms on land.
In total with this first system, we are expecting 1.5 to 3 inches of rainfall for most areas. South or southwest facing slopes may receive up to 5 inches of rainfall, especially with enhancement from strong southerly winds. There is potential for minor roadway flooding, or flooding near creeks.
Snow levels will start around 7,000 feet and fall to 5,500 feet by Thursday afternoon. We expect up to 18 inches of snow above 7,000 feet, up to 6 inches above 6,000 feet, and a dusting above 4,500 feet. There is a winter storm watch from Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon in the Ventura County mountains.
Winds speeds will be 20 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. Winds will be strongest in the mountains and hills. With saturated soil and strong winds, there is an increased chance of downed trees.
There is a high surf advisory in effect on the South Coast and Ventura County coast until 6:00 am Saturday, and on the Central Coast until 5:00 pm Saturday. Breaking waves will be 8 to 12 feet south of Point Conception. On the Central Coast, waves will be 7 to 10 feet on Wednesday, up to 18 feet on Thursday and Friday, and up to 12 feet on Saturday. Moderate coastal flooding is possible during the storm.
Showers will taper off through Thursday. Our region should get a short break from the rain between Friday and Saturday. The second storm is on track to arrive Sunday or Monday. As of the publish time of this article, models show a more extended period of rainfall with more potential for flooding.
