The US and Iran have a deal on paper. At sea, the Strait of Hormuz is ‘chaotic’

By Mostafa Salem and Eleni Giokos, CNN

Abu Dhabi, UAE (CNN) — “If any vessel attempts to transit in the Strait without our permission…or outside of the designated route, it is responsible for any consequences.”

The warning was broadcast on Thursday by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital oil chokepoint which is emerging as one of the biggest tests of the agreement between Iran and the United States to end their war.

Just hours later, the Singapore-flagged container ship Ever Lovely was struck by an Iranian drone, a US official told CNN. The attack, the first on a vessel since the pact was signed, was described by President Donald Trump on Friday as a “foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement.”

In retaliation, the US military conducted strikes on Friday against Iranian military targets around the Strait of Hormuz. However, a US official played down the prospect of escalation following the strikes, telling CNN they do not reflect a return to major combat operations, at least for now.

The Revolutionary Guards said they targeted US military positions in the region in response to Friday’s strikes, Iranian state media Press TV reported. The US military has not confirmed such strikes. Bahrain reported Iranian drone attacks on its territory early Saturday morning but the target is not yet clear.

The ceasefire agreement stipulates that Iran will make “arrangements using its best efforts” to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies travel. Ensuring unobstructed transit was Iran’s main concession to the US.

But for Iran, reopening the strait does not mean relinquishing control of it. A vaguely worded article in the agreement said Iran and Oman would work together to “define the future administration” of the waterway, effectively giving Tehran a formal role in managing it.

As negotiations with the US proceed, Thursday’s strike is a signal that Iran plans to impose its terms on the strait, deciding where and when ships can pass. The Revolutionary Guards have denounced routes not approved by Tehran as “unacceptable,” “completely dangerous,” and “prohibited,” urging all vessels to coordinate exclusively with their navy to secure safe passage.

Meanwhile, Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) has issued rules requiring ships to complete an email authorization form in exchange for a “Safe Passage Guarantee” that includes insurance. CNN attempted to contact the PGSA but emails to the authority bounced back.

Three distinct routes for ships have now emerged in the narrow maritime corridor, with different authorities vying to organize the transit of dozens of vessels through the 21-mile-wide waterway. One southern route goes through the waters off Oman; a second route, which was used before the war, passes through the middle of the strait; and a third route further north is controlled by Iran. This leaves vessel operators with a difficult choice over which path to take.

“All this is very confusing for safely navigating those waters,” Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of maritime risk consultancy Marisks told CNN, adding that “the current environment is extremely dangerous.”

Shippers fear US sanctions

The lack of clarity over which route to take is complicating efforts for trade in the waterway to return to pre-war levels. What may have been agreed by the leaders of Iran and the US is not being reflected at sea, shipping companies say.

The competing corridors have left them confused, forcing them to navigate not only the treacherous waters – facing threats from sea mines, aerial drones, and Revolutionary Guard patrol boats – but also the complex political currents across the strait.

If ships opt for the non-Iranian routes, they risk being attacked. If they comply with the Revolutionary Guards’ demands and use the Iranian route, they fear the risk of Western sanctions should the agreement collapse.

“Global shipping want to avoid dealing with the Iranians because there is a fear that they may run a risk of US sanctions in the future,” Maniatis, of Marisks told CNN, adding that “people are very cautious of the current US administration because they’ve previously announced that any toll fee payment to the Iranian regime may be a a reason for US sanctions.”

Iran initially demanded payment for passage but has since said it will not immediately impose tolls. Instead, it plans to charge fees for maritime services and introduce a new environmental tax on ships in a move that has raised eyebrows among the US’ oil-exporting Arab allies.

After the attack on the Ever Lovely, the IMO halted a coordinated humanitarian evacuation that was guiding more than 500 commercial vessels carrying over 11,000 seafarers trapped in the Persian Gulf out of the region “until further clarity is obtained,” according to a statement by the group. Maritime experts said at least four ships subsequently turned back from the corridor.

For the ships choosing to take the more sanctions-averse Omani route, vessels are passing very close to each other increasing the risk of accidents.

During the war, insurance premiums also skyrocketed, with ship owners paying more than $1 million per Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) to protect against attacks.

Those premiums remain elevated even though such incidents now rarely occur. To get insurance to move through the strait, vessels need to nominate the route they’re opting to take, Matthew Wright, Principal Freight Analyst at Kpler, a data intelligence firm that tracks global shipping and commodity flows, told CNN.

“This is not back to square one but it’s makes it very clear that we are still in the 60-day ceasefire rather than an absolute guarantee that the Strait of Hormuz is on a certain path of reopening,” Wright said, adding that “if the disagreements are not ironed out by mid-August, we might end up seeing the three routes being used in a more chaotic manner and in a less safe way.”

Despite the confusion, maritime risk companies remain cautiously optimistic that vessels have begun embarking on the treacherous journey after months of uncertainty, even if it means navigating the strait’s new political realities by choosing between competing routes and shouldering significantly higher costs.

But the same companies warn that a clear gap remains between what was agreed between leaders in the negotiating rooms and what is actually happening in the strait. The uncertainty is leaving many shipping company owners waiting to see a sustained period of incident-free crossings before allowing their vessels to set sail again.

“We’re coming from a high position of distrust between both sides, so the agreement is a good first step,” Wright said. “But there’s obviously a big gap between what the US is saying, and what the Iranians are saying.”

“We’re in a very chaotic period,” he added.

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