Taiwan anxiously eyes Trump’s summit in China, with $14 billion in US arms sales up in the air

By Jennifer Hansler, Zachary Cohen, Isabelle Khurshudyan, CNN

(CNN) — As President Donald Trump meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week, Taiwan will be nervously monitoring from afar to ascertain whether its political status and critical arms purchases come up in discussions between the two leaders.

While Taiwanese officials have publicly expressed confidence in the strength of their partnership with the US, some current and former US officials and analysts have questioned if the transactional Trump could offer Xi concessions on Taiwan, especially if he seeks the Chinese leader’s help with negotiating an end to the Iran war.

Under the longstanding “One China” policy, the US acknowledges China’s position that Taiwan is part of China but has never officially recognized the Communist Party’s claim to the self-governing island. Washington maintains robust unofficial relations with Taiwan and has sold billions of dollars in advanced weapons to the island, with bipartisan approval, but has remained intentionally ambiguous on whether it would intervene militarily in the event of a Chinese attack.

Although administration officials have said that the US Taiwan policy remains unchanged, there are concerns that Trump might undermine the democratic island of more than 23 million through deeds or words – wittingly or not.

Trump and Xi have had an ongoing dialogue about Taiwan — last year Trump said the Chinese leader promised he would not invade while his US counterpart is still in office — and now the issue is expected to come up when the two meet, according to multiple sources familiar with the planning.

Trump on Monday said he would discuss US arms sales to Taiwan with Xi – a comment that deepened concerns future sales could be jeopardized.

“I’m going to have that discussion,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “President Xi would like us not to. And I’ll have that discussion.”

Trump has yet to formally move forward with an arms sale package to Taiwan worth around $14 billion. Beijing, for its part, has consistently opposed arms sales to Taiwan.

A bipartisan group of senators, in a letter sent ahead of the trip, urged Trump to formally notify Congress that those sales to the island have been approved by the administration.

“You should make clear to Beijing that as you seek to level the economic playing field, American support for Taiwan is not up for negotiation,” they wrote.

A senior US official noted the administration’s record of arms sales to Taiwan, which included more than $11 billion in sales last December – one of the largest in history – as a sign of the US commitment to the island.

During Trump’s visit, Xi may try to get some concessions from Trump that the Chinese could announce afterward, a former senior US government official said.

“Such a concession could amount to something like criticizing Taiwan, criticizing the president of Taiwan, or agreeing implicitly not to move forward with the next planned major arms sales package to Taiwan,” the official said, noting that would send a huge message to Taipei.

China certainly feels it is entering the talks with leverage to seek concessions of its own. Chinese sources familiar with the matter recently told CNN that Beijing cautiously views its adversary’s months-long conflict with Iran in particular as having potentially strengthened its negotiating position.

The return of Taiwan – which China’s Communist Party claims but has never controlled – is publicly one of Xi’s most cherished long-term goals.

Taiwan is also watching Trump’s face-to-face with Xi closely.

Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said this week he remains confident in relations with Washington and stressed the US has repeatedly reassured Taipei that its Taiwan policy will not change.

But he also acknowledged the anxiety surrounding the summit, saying, “Of course we hope that the Trump-Xi summit does not produce any surprises regarding Taiwan-related issues.”

Lin’s deputy was more candid in an interview with Bloomberg in late April.

“What we are the most afraid (of) is to put Taiwan on the menu of the talk between Xi Jinping and President Trump,” Deputy Foreign Minister Francois Wu said. “We worry, and we need to avoid that it happens.”

A Taiwan national security official told CNN they had received assurances ahead of Trump’s trip.

“US officials have in recent days repeatedly reaffirmed their firm support for Taiwan,” the source said.

“The greatest risk to Taiwan surrounding this Trump-Xi meeting is not Trump himself. Rather, it is China,” the source added.

Xi expected to make his case

Xi will also almost certainly make his case for why Taiwan belongs to China, multiple sources familiar with the expectations of US and Taiwanese officials ahead of the meeting told CNN. Xi has said that reunification of Taiwan with mainland China is “unstoppable” and has refused to rule out the use of force.

Given that Trump has appeared receptive to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s argument that Ukraine belongs to Russia, Xi may seek to make a similar argument regarding Taiwan, one of the sources said.

China has previously indicated that Taiwan is “the biggest risk” in its relationship with the US. “The US side should honor its commitments and make the right choice, to open up new space for China-U.S. cooperation and make due efforts for world peace,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a phone call at the end of April, according to a readout from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

Rubio said last week that the US policy on Taiwan “remains unchanged.”

“I don’t think it will be a feature of our trip, but it’ll certainly be an item that’s discussed,” Rubio said.

Under the decades-old Taiwan Relations Act, Washington is also bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself. But some US and Taiwanese officials have long feared that Trump may be inclined to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip in pursuit of some sort of grand bargain with China. Taiwan produces key parts used for AI and defense technology used in the United States.

Taiwanese officials have emphasized they are taking steps to assume more responsibility for their own defense after Trump has loudly and repeatedly complained that US allies don’t pay their fair share.

Taiwanese officials also maintain consistent contact with the US military via commanders at INDOPACOM — a key channel of communication that is largely uninterrupted by the White House’s shifting priorities, according to a source familiar with the arrangement.

Meanwhile, Taiwanese officials are concerned that the depletion of US weapons stockpiles could impact the undelivered systems already purchased by Taiwan, though they are encouraged by the administration’s efforts to address the problem.

The US military has significantly depleted its stockpile of key missiles during the war with Iran and created a “near-term risk” of running out of ammunition in a future conflict should one arise in the next few years, CNN has reported.

The number of critical munitions remaining in US stockpiles is no longer sufficient to confront an adversary like China, and it will likely take years before the inventory returns to pre-war levels, according to a new analysis conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Taiwan’s opposition-controlled parliament agreed to extra defense spending of $25 billion last week, but it was significantly below the $40 billion the government had initially tried to get approved.

While there is no sign a military incursion is imminent, Taiwan is actively preparing for the possibility of a Chinese invasion. And China continues to lay the groundwork for such a move with frequent military drills around the island.

But there is optimism among some analysts.

Piero Tozzi, senior director for China Policy at America First Policy Institute, said Trump “understands how important Taiwan is.”

“It’s really the front line of our defense, defense of the homeland,” Tozzi said. “I don’t think the Taiwanese have anything to worry about.”

CNN’s Will Ripley and Wayne Chang in Taipei contributed to this report.

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