CNN Poll: Harris and Trump locked in exceedingly close presidential race

By Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy and Edward Wu, CNN

(CNN) — The race for president between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is exceedingly close, with Harris’ support resting on stronger personal appeal, while Trump draws on a die-hard base and a wide advantage on handling the economy to run about even despite less positive views of him, his empathy and temperament.

Among likely voters nationwide, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds 48% support Harris and 47% Trump, a margin that suggests no clear leader in the race. About 2% say they plan to vote for Libertarian Chase Oliver and 1% for Green Party nominee Jill Stein. Both Harris and Trump hold positive support from the majority of their backers – 72% of Trump’s supporters say their choice is more for him than against Harris, while 60% of Harris’ supporters say their choice is more for her than against him.

That’s a major shift in voters’ attitudes toward the race compared with earlier this summer. In the last national CNN poll in July, shortly after President Joe Biden ended his campaign for president and Harris threw her hat into the ring for the Democratic nomination, Harris’ backers were evenly divided between affirmative support for her and those driven by anti-Trump sentiment. And Biden’s supporters in earlier polls said they were largely expressing opposition to Trump with their choice.

The latest poll finds Harris and Trump roughly even with independent likely voters – Harris at 45% to Trump at 41% – with a gender gap that is centered among independents. Independent women break 51% Harris to 36% Trump while independent men split 47% for Trump to 40% for Harris, with very little difference between men and women in either party.

The gender divide in the poll is also more concentrated among White voters (White men break 58% Trump to 35% Harris, while White women split 50% Trump to 47% Harris), with very little gender divide among Black or Latino voters. Harris is well ahead among likely voters younger than 30 (55% support her to 38% who favor Trump), and among Black (79% Harris to 16% Trump) and Latino (59% Harris to 40% Trump) likely voters.

A scant 2% of likely voters say they haven’t yet chosen a candidate to support, and another 12% have chosen one but say they could change their minds.

The poll suggests that overall, Harris has begun to build a more positive public image, outpacing Trump across several measures of how the public views her personally.

Since becoming the Democratic presidential nominee, Harris’ favorability rating has climbed to its highest level in CNN polling since just before her and Biden’s inauguration in January 2021 (currently 46% favorable to 48% unfavorable among likely voters), while Trump’s has held steady (currently 42% favorable to 55% unfavorable among likely voters).

Although many voters are still forming opinions of the major candidates for vice president, Harris’ choice for a running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, has a notably more positive favorability rating (36% favorable to 32% unfavorable) than Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance (30% favorable to 42% unfavorable).

A narrow majority or more of likely voters nationwide say Harris’ temperament (58%), background and life experience (56%), ability to understand their problems (52%), skills as a leader (51%) and vision for the country (51%) align with what they want in a president. For Trump, by contrast, about half of likely voters or fewer say his vision for the country (49%), skills as a leader (49%), background (46%), ability to empathize with people like them (46%) or temperament (38%) align with their vision of a president.

But notably, in this divided race, 51% say each of them has policy positions on major issues that align with what they want in a president, with more saying Trump’s are exactly what they want in a president (29% for Trump vs. 18% for Harris).

That’s true even as Trump is more broadly seen as “too extreme” in his views and positions than Harris is (54% of likely voters say Trump is, 42% that Harris is). A small group of those who see Trump as too extreme are voting for him anyway: He holds the support of 10% of likely voters who consider his views and policies to be too extreme, while Harris has the backing of just 4% of those likely voters who feel she is too extreme.

Trump also benefits from the 51% of likely voters who say that looking back on his time as president, it was more of a success than a failure. And Harris may be impeded by the widespread perception of Biden’s time as president as a failure (61% see it that way, and only 19% in that group say they support Harris for president).

Likely voters overall say they trust Trump over Harris to handle the economy (50% Trump to 39% Harris), immigration (49% Trump to 35% Harris) and foreign policy (47% Trump to 40% Harris). Even among those who say Trump’s views and policies are too extreme, 15% say they trust him over Harris to handle the economy and the same share say so on immigration.

Likely voters generally favor Harris’ approach on abortion and reproductive rights (52% Harris to 31% Trump), uniting the country (43% Harris to 30% Trump), and protecting democracy (47% Harris to 40% Trump).

About 4 in 10 likely voters (41%) call the economy the most important issue for them as they choose a candidate for president, with protecting democracy second at 21%, immigration at 12% and abortion at 11%. Harris’ voters are more likely to choose protecting democracy as most important (37%) over the economy (21%) or abortion (19%), while Trump’s supporters are concentrated on the economy (61%) and immigration (21%).

Voters who prioritize the economy, regardless of whom they support for president, are broadly focused on inflation. A majority (55%) of them say in a follow-up question that inflation is the top economic issue on their minds as they consider the candidates, with only federal spending (12%) and taxes (11%) joining it in double-digits. Inflation is still a widespread consideration even among those for whom the economy is not the top issue: 32% in that group say inflation is the biggest economic issue they’re considering, 16% jobs and wages, 15% federal spending, 13% the cost of housing and 12% taxes.

Among registered voters, 77% say that the recent tone of America’s politics and political debate is encouraging violence among some people, the same as the share who felt that way in September 2019, and 72% in the new poll say the amount of political violence in the US is a major problem. Registered voters are more inclined to expect political violence to get worse than better, regardless of which candidate is elected this year, but more (57%) say it would get worse should Trump be elected, than if Harris were (42%).

Democrats are more apt than Republicans or independents to see the recent tone as encouraging violence (81% among Democratic registered voters compared with 76% among independents registered to vote and 73% among Republican registered voters). But partisans on both sides agree on the severity of the problem (75% of Democratic voters and 73% of Republican voters call it a major problem; slightly fewer independent voters feel the same way, 69%).

Democratic voters are far more likely to say the risk of political violence will get worse should Trump win (86%) than Republican voters are to say the risk will be higher should Harris win (65%). Republican voters are also more likely to say things would get worse should their own candidate win (30%) than Democratic voters are to foresee a higher risk for violence if Harris wins (18%).

Among all registered voters, 47% say they would feel “afraid” if Trump won the election, and a similar 45% would feel that way should Harris win. Forty-one percent would be “angry” if Trump won, slightly more than those who would feel that way if Harris did (37%).

And there’s a notable shift compared with 2016 among registered voters who say they would feel more positive emotions if Trump were to win: 41% of voters say they would be excited if Trump won, compared with just 27% who felt that way in June 2016, and 38% say they would be proud, up from 24% who said the same eight years ago. The share saying they’d feel embarrassed has dropped, from 56% then to 48% now.

Harris inspires more positive emotions than Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton did in the summer of 2016. Should Harris win, 41% of registered voters say they would feel proud, and 40% excited, compared with a respective 35% and 29% who said the same about Clinton then. The share saying they’d feel embarrassed by a Harris win (41%) is about the same as it was for Clinton (39%).

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS online and by telephone September 19-22, 2024, among 2,074 registered voters nationwide drawn from a probability-based panel. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results for the full sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. It is the same among likely voters and larger for subgroups.

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