What to watch for in the US-Iran memo to end the war
By Tim Lister, CNN
(CNN) — For a relatively short “memorandum of understanding” (MoU), the draft agreement between the United States and Iran is taking a very long time to finalize.
That’s because language and sequencing is everything; every last word will be parsed and debated; every connection between one element and another scrutinized.
For example, will the 60-day process envisaged in the MoU be defined as an extension of the weeks-long ceasefire or a definitive end to hostilities?
Even if the MoU is just a page covering about a dozen points in brief, as many accounts have suggested, it’s not that simple.
“We have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday.
The sequencing of a process that is due to unfold over two months is critical.
Where we are now
Iran and the United States reached a tentative agreement to turn the existing ceasefire into a more long-lasting settlement, US officials said Thursday.
But on Friday, President Donald Trump made a series of demands – on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear program and the unfreezing of Iranian assets held overseas – that did not go down well in Tehran.
Trump’s assertions, in a social media post, were “a mixture of truth and falsehood” and an attempt to project a “manufactured victory,” said the semi-official Fars news agency.
“The ‘musts’ that the Americans bring up are actually requests,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei.
So it appears that the MoU is still, at best, a work in progress.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in Singapore Saturday that he had spoken to Trump, who “wanted me to reiterate how patient he is in ensuring that with America undertaking this kind of historic endeavor, any deal will be a good one, a great one, and he’s patient in the pursuit of that.”
Hormuz reopening a key first step
Both sides regard agreement on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as a first step, after three months of paralysis in the critical waterway that has caused a sharp spike in the price of crude oil and other commodities.
“The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions,” Trump said Friday, with Iran responsible for demining the seaway.
At the same time, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted, Trump said.
Iran would allow shipping through the strait to return to pre-war levels over a period of 30 days, according to some accounts of the MoU. Shipping sources say the industry will want a period of sustained calm before sending vessels through.
Trump has insisted on free, unhindered navigation; Iran continues to insist it has a right to manage traffic through the international waterway, in association with Oman. Finding language to square that circle will be challenging.
Iran is pursuing “the smart management of the Strait of Hormuz,” according to Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, in an interview Friday.
“Iran’s control measures and arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz are permanent in nature and certainly not temporary,” Azizi said.
Trump has warned Oman – a traditional ally of the West – against any arrangement with Iran.
“Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we’ll have to blow them up,” he said during a cabinet meeting Thursday. “They understand that. They’ll be fine.”
How the restoration of navigation is synchronized with Tehran’s demand for an immediate end to the blockade of Iranian ports by the US Navy will also be crucial.
As of May 29, 115 commercial vessels have been redirected to ensure no commerce enters or leaves Iranian ports, according to US Central Command.
“By continuing the naval blockade and making excessive demands in negotiations, he has once again proven that he is not inclined toward negotiation and is pursuing other objectives,” Mohsen Rezaei, an adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said Saturday.
Iranian state media claims that the memorandum will call for US military forces to withdraw from the vicinity of Iran in tandem with the end of the blockade, and that “military ships are not included in this commitment” to reopen the strait.
Trump made no mention of a withdrawal in his statements Friday.
The nuclear file
It’s only when the MoU is signed that the clock starts ticking on a 60-day negotiation period to address Iran’s nuclear program, including the fate of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. This was the main issue during negotiations brokered by Oman last year and in February.
Uranium is a key nuclear fuel that can be used to build a nuclear bomb if enriched to high levels. Iran is thought to have more than 440 kilograms (970 pounds) of highly enriched uranium.
Trump repeated his reddest of red lines on Friday.
“Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon,” he said on social media.
He went on to say that Iran’s stockpiles, which are likely buried after US strikes last June, will be unearthed in a joint US-Iranian operation and destroyed – an assertion quickly repudiated by Iranian state media.
Trump has said that he would not want the uranium sent to Russia or China. Russia has repeatedly offered to receive it.
It’s unclear how or whether Iran’s extensive stocks of less enriched uranium will be part of the negotiations.
Azizi, the senior parliamentarian, said Friday that “Iran does not intend to transfer its enriched uranium to a third country.”
The initial memorandum is not expected to cover Iran’s nuclear enrichment program in any detail. Trump has previously said that a suspension of uranium enrichment for 20 years would be acceptable. Iran is understood to have offered a much shorter suspension, according to sources.
Iran’s frozen assets
Iran’s economy was in deep trouble before the war broke out, and unemployment has surged since.
A written message purportedly from Khamenei on Thursday urged parliament “to prioritize reconstruction, economic stability, and rebuilding war-related damage.”
Iran is demanding the immediate unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets held in banks overseas. But a senior US official told CNN last week that the unfreezing of Iranian assets would occur only once the Strait of Hormuz has reopened.
In an apparent reference to those assets, Trump said Friday that “No money will be exchanged, until further notice.”
If Tehran and Washington agree to the memorandum, $24 billion worth of Iranian assets could be released, the semi-official Iranian news agency Tasnim said Tuesday. Half that sum could be released when the deal is first announced, the news agency added.
There have also been discussions around an investment fund for Iran that would provide billions of dollars for reconstruction once a final deal is reached. The US would not invest in the fund, and the bulk of the money would come from Gulf nations.
Iranian officials last month estimated that damage worth $270 billion had been caused by US and Israeli strikes.
Sanctions
Officials in Washington have been using the refrain “no dust, no dollars,” to link the removal of the highly enriched uranium with Tehran’s financial demands.
As with Iran’s frozen assets, sanctions imposed on Iran will only be lifted once the Strait of Hormuz is open and fully functioning again, a US official told CNN.
Iran’s economy is suffering from a huge array of international sanctions, most of them imposed by the US and Europe. Those are not expected to be immediately lifted but tied to the nuclear file.
“Details must be negotiated after the memorandum is finalized,” according to Baghaei.
Iran estimates removal of sanctions on oil sales alone could generate nearly $10 billion in revenue for the government over a 60-day period, the semi-official Fars News Agency reported.
Lebanon
It’s also unclear how or whether the conflict between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon will be addressed in any memorandum. Over the past week, Iranian officials have stressed that the MoU will apply to the “end of the war on all fronts, including Lebanon.”
In the last few days, Israeli forces have extended their incursion deeper into southern Lebanon and ordered new evacuations, while Hezbollah has continued to fire drones and rockets towards Israel and inflicted casualties on Israeli troops inside Lebanon.
The ceasefire agreed at Washington’s behest in mid-April survives in name only, and the Trump administration has doubled down on its support for the Israeli campaign.
The US president told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week that he supports the country’s wish to “maintain freedom of action against threats on all fronts, including Lebanon,” an Israeli official told CNN.
And lastly: trust – and verify
The negotiations are overshadowed by a continuing lack of trust on both sides. Iranian officials never tire of saying that the country has twice been attacked by the US in the last year while negotiations were ongoing.
“We have no trust in guarantees or words—only actions are the measure. No action will be taken before the other side acts,” Iran’s senior negotiator, Mohammad Bagheri Ghalibaf said Friday.
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