Active weather and elevated surf on tap

Wednesday was a mild day with partly cloudy skies, but there is active weather in the forecast for the last full week of 2023. The first of two systems will move over San Luis Obispo County Wednesday afternoon, with very little rain expected. The system will fizzle as it moves southward, keeping Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties dry for the time being. It will be generally underwhelming and move out of the region by Thursday.

The second storm will arrive Friday, bringing light to moderate rainfall to communities North of Point Conception before moving towards the South Coast and Ventura County by Friday evening into Saturday. From the second system, more widespread rainfall is expected and there is some instability as well. There's a non-zero chance of thunderstorm activity, with projected rainfall totals between half an inch to an inch for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. Less rain is expected for Ventura County, as the storm will lose power as it moves farther South.

The main impact we will feel here at home will be the elevated surf. A Beach Hazards Statement is currently in effect until 4am Thursday morning for South Coast and Ventura County Beaches. It will then be upgraded to a Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Surf Advisory and will be in effect from 4am until 10pm Saturday evening. In San Luis Obispo County and North Santa Barbara County, a High Surf Advisory will be in effect until 4am Thursday morning. It will then be upgraded to a High Surf Warning and a Coastal Flood Warning and will be in effect from 4am Thursday until 10pm Saturday evening.

It is best to avoid the water for the time being, even if you are an experienced swimmer or surfer. Breaking waves will be between 7 to 12 feet, with local sets between 15 to 20 feet expected.

There are rain chances next week that begin Sunday and linger through Tuesday, but details on timing and intensity are pending.