Hurricane season likely to reawaken in its final month

By Mary Gilbert, CNN Meteorologist

(CNN) — Halloween may be over, but hurricane season still has a few unsettling tricks left in its final month.

Three tropical trouble spots bear watching in the Atlantic basin in the coming days as a strange hurricane season continues to defy expectations.

One of these trouble areas is located in the western Caribbean and has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression late this weekend or early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Once it develops, it could strengthen into a tropical storm. But exactly when and where a tropical depression develops in the coming days will have major implications for where it could go next.

The next tropical storm to form will be given the name Patty, followed by Rafael and Sara.

It’s still too early to know the exact track the potential storm could take, but the system could drift toward the Gulf of Mexico. Drenching rainfall and perhaps some gusty winds are likely in the western Caribbean, parts of Central America and Mexico’s Yucatán peninsula next week.

The US Gulf Coast could finally have some atmospheric protection on its side after multiple devastating hurricane strikes this season. Storm-disrupting upper-level winds are expected to set up over the Gulf next week and could tear any system that makes it into the region apart.

The two other areas have low chances of tropical development in the next week.

Stormy weather that brought record-breaking rain to Puerto Rico Thursday and was drenching parts of the northeastern Caribbean Friday has a slim window to organize into a tropical system as it slides westward in the coming days. Regardless of development, it could bring additional flooding rainfall to Puerto Rico and to the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola through the weekend and into next week.

The other area is located in the open Atlantic and is unlikely to be a threat to land regardless of development.

November to remain active

Hurricane season typically winds down in November, but this year has already proven itself to be anything but typical.

This season is above average in terms of named storms, hurricanes and major – Category 3 or stronger – hurricanes.

Five hurricanes struck the US this year despite the season taking a big break, and confounding experts, during what should have been the busiest part of the year.

So it’s no surprise this November looks likely to continue the trend. While November storms do form, they do so much less frequently overall and ones that hit the US are exceptionally rare.

At least 125 tropical storms and hurricanes have roamed the Atlantic in November since the late 1800s, according to data from NOAA. Ninety-eight percent of named storms make landfall in the US before November, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

Storms that form in November tend to do so in the Caribbean and in the southwestern and central parts of the Atlantic where warm water persists longer and storm-disrupting winds tend to be weaker. The Gulf of Mexico isn’t a common source of tropical trouble in a typical November because storm-disrupting winds get stronger over the area in the late fall.

For something tropical to form and stay active in the Gulf, it would likely need a boost provided by extremely warm water. The Gulf isn’t as hot as it was when it fueled Helene and Milton, but it’s still warmer than average for November.

Beyond development chances in the next few days, the Caribbean could remain a tropical hotspot into the back half of November, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

Hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but tropical systems aren’t bound by that date. Around two dozen tropical storms and hurricanes have roamed the basin in December since the late 1800s.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2024 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.