Not just the base: Democrats in recent elections are flipping independent and Republican votes

By Edward Wu, Molly English, CNN

(CNN) — Two special election victories in Florida provided more evidence that the Democratic success in elections since Donald Trump’s return to the White House rests not just on a motivated base but also on winning over Republicans and independents.

More registered Republicans than registered Democrats voted in two special elections on March 24, according to turnout data from election officials. In state House District 87, the district including Mar-a-Lago that was flipped by Democrat Emily Gregory, voter turnout was 46% Republican to 36% Democrat. In state Senate District 14, Democrat Brian Nathan finished ahead in a race with 46% GOP turnout versus 37% Democrat.

In both races, Gregory and Nathan overperformed 2024 presidential margins by an amount larger than the shift in partisan turnout.

That suggests that Democratic success was not just from turning out their base — some combination of registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely also broke toward the Democratic candidates.

For example, in the district that included Mar-a-Lago, had all the registered Republicans voted for Jon Maples, the GOP candidate, voters not affiliated with either major party would have broken for Gregory roughly 84% to 16%. And if unaffiliated voters instead split evenly, then about 13% of registered Republicans would have voted for Gregory. In 2024, unaffiliated voters were more likely to vote for Republicans (assuming similar defection rates among the two parties).

When asked about the results in Senate District 14, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis responded Tuesday that the Republican loss despite an apparent GOP turnout advantage suggested both poor performance with independents and that “Republicans are voting the other way.” He also noted his differences with Jane Tomkow, the Republican who lost to Gregory.

Both Gregory and Nathan said their outreach across party lines focused on concerns about rising cost of living summed up in one political buzzword: affordability.

“I made sure I wasn’t staying in just Democratic rooms,” Nathan told CNN, adding that he went “where the regular people go, where they’re not divided up by party lines.”

Those places included a Publix parking lot, where Nathan said he stood outside and handed out campaign literature on Election Day.

“Everybody goes to the grocery store, so it was just finding people where they’re at and then talking to them about the issues that are actually top of mind for them,” Nathan said. He added that his conversations with voters “always came back to affordability in one form or another.”

“There are partisan issues,” he said, “but affordability kind of trumps them all.”

Gregory emphasized that she tried to meet voters where they were. She told CNN that “affordability is a broad term” and what that means varies by community.

“Specifically in District 87, that looks like property insurance, that looks like health care, and that looks like public schools,” Gregory said. “I think a different community in Georgia or South Carolina or New Jersey, they may have affordability issues, but you can’t just copy-paste.”

Democratic overperformance has consistently outpaced change in partisan turnout

CNN examined the two statewide races and three special elections for US House held in states where voters can register with a party.

In all five races, registered Democrats improved their turnout relative to 2024. And in each case, Democratic overperformance in actual votes relative to the 2024 presidential race also exceeded the shift in partisan turnout.

Party registration is not the same as party identification or vote choice. It’s possible that the Democratic candidates in these and the Florida state legislature races received votes from registered Republicans and independent voters who are consistent Democratic voters, for example. In some cases, voters who initially register with one party may later identify with another, and neither party identification nor registration means a voter always sides with their chosen party.

Still, defections among registered Republicans were a mathematical certainty in the special election in Florida’s 1st Congressional District last April. Nearly 58% of ballots were cast by registered Republicans, yet Republican candidate Jimmy Patronis received just under 57% of the vote.

In New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial race, there were signs before Election Day that now-Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s campaign was reaching Republicans and independents, according to Jackie Burns, a senior adviser.

“We had people coming up to us all the time on the campaign trail that said, ‘I’m an independent. I voted for Trump, but I’m backing Mikie Sherrill,’” she said.

A midday event in bright-red Ocean County just before Election Day garnered hundreds of people, according to Burns. Although Ocean County ultimately voted for Republican Jack Ciattarelli, every county in the state shifted toward Democrats in 2025.

A local issue that spoke to Republicans and independents across the board was the threat by Trump to halt funding to the Gateway Tunnel, a $16 billion commuter rail project between New Jersey and New York. Sherrill and her allies accused Ciattarelli of not doing enough to push back against the White House.

Burns argued that Ciattarelli’s reaction “really frustrated and, quite frankly, angered independents and some moderate Republicans that this guy was not going to fight for New Jersey.”

CNN’s exit polls from last November also found a considerable Democratic advantage in persuasion. In three statewide races, defections were higher among Trump 2024 voters than voters for former Vice President Kamala Harris: Seven percent of Trump voters voted for the Democratic candidates for governor in New Jersey and Virginia (compared with 3% of Harris voters in New Jersey and 1% in Virginia who backed the Republican candidates). In California, 12% of Trump supporters voted for the Democratic-backed ballot measure to redraw US House districts (5% of Harris voters opposed the measure).

In all three states, voters who supported neither Trump nor Harris in 2024 broke heavily for the Democratic side.

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