Enjoy a mild Friday before the stormy weekend
There will be a mix of low and upper-level clouds for our Thursday evening. We will continue to see that cloudy mix, plus some midday sunshine on our Friday. Conditions will be dry for one last day before the weather turns over the weekend.
Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s to 40s in interior areas, and 40s to low 50s for coastal areas on Friday. High temperatures will be mild in the 60s under a temporary ridge of high pressure. A few coastal valleys may approach 70 degrees, but likely won't break that threshold.
Cloud coverage will increase Saturday morning ahead of the approaching storm. Temperatures will also cool. Light to moderate rain showers will arrive by the afternoon or evening on the Central Coast, spreading southward at night, but fizzling as it goes. This first impulse will produce around a tenth of an inch on the South Coast, up to a half inch on the Central Coast, and up to three quarters of an inch north of Morro Bay.
The timing, duration, and rain totals of the second impulse are a bit lower confidence, as there is still a wide range of outcomes across different weather models. There will be a lull between impulses, and it's possible that most of Sunday could be dry. It is likely that most rain will come in overnight between Sunday night and Monday morning. It may be heavy at times.
Lighter rain showers will likely follow the heaviest band, lingering much of Monday and into Tuesday. Conditions will start to dry Wednesday, though there is still a slight chance of rain at that point.
In total, we are still projecting 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in coastal areas between Saturday and Wednesday, with more in the mountains. There are models that show less rainfall, and models that show more. Models will likely come to a better agreement as we get closer to the storm's arrival. Snowfall will stay mostly at resort level, and could total up to several inches of new snow.
A flood watch is in effect for Sunday night to Wednesday morning in Western San Luis Obispo County, Central Ventura County, as well as the South Coast, Coastal Valleys, and Mountains of Santa Barbara County. There may be ponding and street flooding, and river flows will be strong. The Ventura River may approach flood stage.
