First storm in series will bring consistent rain overnight and scattered showers on Thursday

After a cooler and cloudier day, the first of a set of atmospheric rivers will bring widespread rainfall over a period of several hours tonight. Rain showers will begin to arrive in the early evening on the Central Coast, but the frontal band will arrive around 10:00 pm. It will pass through our region overnight, so that some heavy showers may linger during the early morning commute in Ventura County.

Throughout Thursday, showers will be off and on. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms, at which times rainfall could be heavy. Light rain showers may even pop up here and there into Friday.

In total with our first system, we are expecting 1 to 3 inches of rain in coastal areas, and 4 to 5 inches of rain in foothills and mountains. Totals will be highest on south and southwest-facing slopes because of enhancement from the wind.

There is a chance of minor flooding of roadways, or near creeks and coastal areas, with this first storm. If you see flooding, never drive through it.

There is a winter storm warning in the northern Ventura County mountains and a winter weather advisory in the southern Ventura County mountains. Both run from midnight to 4:00 pm Thursday. Snow levels will start around 7,000 feet and fall to 5,500 feet by Thursday afternoon. We expect up to 18 inches of snow above 7,000 feet, up to 6 inches above 6,000 feet, and up to 3 inches above 4,500 feet. 

There is a high wind warning in the Santa Barbara County interior mountains from 7:00 pm Wednesday through 5:00 am Thursday. Southeast winds will be 30 to 40 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. There is a wind advisory on the Southeast Coast and east Santa Ynez Range from 2:00 to 7:00 am Thursday with gusts up to 45 mph. There is a wind advisory for all remaining areas of SLO and Santa Barbara Counties from 7:00 pm Wednesday to 7:00 am Thursday with gusts from 45 to 55 mph.

With strong winds and saturated soils, there is a higher risk of downed trees and power lines. It will make for hazardous driving, especially in the overnight hours. Be extra cautious and prepare for potential power outages at home.

There is a high surf advisory in effect on the South Coast and Ventura County coast from 2:00 am Thursday to 6:00 am Saturday, and on the Central Coast until 5:00 pm Saturday. Breaking waves will be 8 to 12 feet south of Point Conception. On the Central Coast, waves will be 7 to 10 feet on Wednesday, up to 18 feet on Thursday and Friday, and up to 12 feet on Saturday. Moderate coastal flooding is possible during the storm.

Thursday and through the middle of next week, temperatures will be below average. Highs will stay close to either side of 60 degrees. Lows will be in the 40s for coastal areas and 30s for valleys.

All eyes are on Sunday with our next atmospheric river, and what could be our largest storm of the season so far.  Between Sunday to Tuesday, rain totals will likely be around 2 to 4 inches for coastal areas, with more in mountains and foothills. Flooding issues are likely, and mud and rock slides are possible. Be prepared well ahead of this second system and do not travel if avoidable.