Storms lining up, Sunday Feb 15th forecast
Despite a mostly and quiet Valentine's Day weather wise, clouds are beginning to build up ahead of a significant storm system moving toward our region. Look for mostly cloudy and cool conditions through the overnight with some pockets of drizzle possible. Temperatures on Sunday will likely only warm in to the 50's and very low 60's with winds picking from the southwest. Rain chance will increase from north to south by the late afternoon and early evening. Rain totals through late Sunday should stay on the light side as the bulk of this next storm remains just offshore.
For Monday, the core of the storm or center of low pressure will continue to spin just to our northwest and this will pinwheel a very wet and strong cold front right in to Central and Southern California. Rainfall rates could easily exceed our region's ability to handle it and overall rainfall totals will likely add up to create some problems. Flood watches are in place across the entire region as well as wind watches and advisories. Look for rain totals to possibly be in the 1 to 3 inch range for our coastal plains with much higher totals possible up against foothills and mountains, especially on the south and west facing slopes. Ground and wind swell from the storm will also pick up which means advisories are posted for the entire coastline. The first system will make for a blustery Monday and we are even seeing some hints that enough instability will accompany the storm and bring a chance for thunderstorms. If this occurs, the possibility for hail, strong gusts of wind and even waterspouts or tornadoes could be produced.
Showers should decrease in to late Monday evening with some lingering chances in to early Tuesday. The second and third waves of moisture will start to arrive by late Tuesday and while these should be overly strong, they will add to what is expected to be pretty heavy on Monday. Snow levels will also drop to very low levels with multiple feet possible above 5 thousand feet. This is great news for ski resorts in Southern California after having such a challenging start to Winter. More light to moderate showers will be possible through Thursday before we see a break with just slight chances for additional rain through next weekend
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