May grey arrives Thursday, tracking thunderstorm chances
Onshore flow will push more dense marine clouds into the area Thursday morning. Misting and drizzle is likely and we will kick off the month of May with a cool and cloudy start. Clouds will attempt to clear by the evening, some beaches will see a partly cloudy skies while other areas will see no clearing. Due to low pressure in Southern California, we have a chance for thunderstorms and showers this evening. We have a 10% chance for light showers, while thunderstorm chances are mostly in the mountains. Modeling indicates that the foothills will receive a little may shower or two, however we cant rule out a stray shower moving into Santa Barbara or Ventura. Any rain amounts will be small and storms are short lived. After 7pm we begin to dry out completely and clouds redevelop along the beaches.
We begin to warm up slightly on Friday as a mini ridge builds into the area. We will still see some misting and drizzle early in the morning from a dense layer of marine clouds however clearing will be quicker for most areas. Expect more sunshine and a short lived warming trend with temperatures back into the 60s and a handful of 70s. Winds are light and marine conditions will be slightly active but not up to high surf criteria.
Our next chances of showers arrive this weekend. This system has fallen apart rather quickly over the last few days and it appears that rainfall will be very light and may even be disguised as misting from the marine layer. Chances for thunderstorms are 10% but it appears that mostly light and small cells will develop. The bigger topic with this storm will be temperatures. This is an exceptionally cool system and may produce light snow in areas like Lake Cachuma and Tepesquet Peak. Areas we typically dont see snow in, especially in the month of May. Rainfall amounts will be close to a tenth of an inch or less and showers will pop up and exit rather quickly and in a disorganized way. We dry out and warm up by next Monday and Tuesday.
