Rain chances begin Thursday, lasting through the weekend
There will be a steady breeze around Gaviota and a coastal marine layer overnight Wednesday. Winds will be calm again by Thursday morning. There will be an increase in upper-level clouds and a slight chance of rain on the Central Coast as a very weak front brushes northern areas. Rain totals will be under a quarter of an inch in areas north of Point Conception, and likely the South Coast will stay dry.
Low temperatures on Thursday will mostly be in the 40s to low 50s. Highs will be mostly in the mid 60s. Temperatures will then drop to the upper 50s or low 60s on Friday with a much stronger storm system.
Friday will start with a deep marine layer, and gray skies will stick around with more upper-level clouds. Light rain showers will begin Friday afternoon in northern areas, spreading southeast. By late Friday, rain will become steadier. It could be heavy at times, lasting through a portion of Saturday. By Saturday night, the nature of the system will become more showery. Showers will linger into Sunday.
In total, most models show 1 to 2.5 inches of rainfall in coastal areas and 3 to 5 inches in the mountains and foothills. South-facing slopes will see the most rain. Mountains will also get snowfall, especially at higher elevations. We expect 1 to 2 feet of snow above 6,000 feet, 6 to 12 inches above 5,000 feet, and 2 to 6 inches above 4,500 feet.
This storm has unstable air, leaving us with chances of thunderstorms or hail, and even of waterspouts or small tornados. With thunderstorms, rain rates will be heavier and rock or mudslides are possible, so drivers should take extra caution. With strong winds and wet soil, there is also risk of downed trees or power outages.
Conditions will dry out on Monday and temperatures will rise a few degrees as high pressure re-emerges. Temperatures will climb further on Tuesday, and some valley areas may leap into the low 70s.
