Tracking a warm front Friday night
The first half of Friday will stay dry with inly a slight chance for pop up showers to develop. Skies should stay partly to mostly cloudy to start out the day, then by the evening clouds will begin to increase in front of a warm front. This warm front will pass through the area, increasing winds, reducing stability and creating some soggy and slow moving showers. Since these showers appear to be slow moving the rainfall rates look slightly more impressive than Wednesday, and we could see a quarter of an inch to three quarters of an inch falling from these storms. A Wind Advisory was issued for higher terrain in the Santa Barbara County Interior Mountains and for the Southern part of the Ventura County Mountains from 10am until 10pm Friday. Sustained winds with this warm front will be 20-30mph with gusts up to 50mph in higher terrain. Friday night into Saturday morning will be the most impactful with strong winds and moderate to periodically heavy rain at times.
Saturday morning will be cloudy, cool and wet. The first half of the morning will still see some moderate to heavy showers, then storms start to track towards the east and the front exits the region. Saturday evening will see a slight chance for showers due to lingering moisture and instability, but its looking rather dry. Temperatures for the day will be a degree or two cooler as a weak cold front moves in Saturday night.
Sunday morning we have lingering shower chances but those chances diminish to zero by the evening and dry conditions persist through the workweek. Winds will shift to moderate Santa Ana winds by Monday, meaning we will dry out rather rapidly. Fire concerns will not be an issue due to recent rain and wet fire fuel. Winds will calm by Wednesday and clouds will increase by Thanksgiving.
