Trump’s tariff threats are hurting your job prospects

By Matt Egan, CNN

New York (CNN) — One in four US businesses has scaled back their hiring plans because of the turmoil unleashed by President Donald Trump’s trade war, according to a survey of chief financial officers released Wednesday.

The quarterly survey, conducted by Duke University and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta, found a significant drop in CFO economic optimism as they grapple with the fog of the trade war. Almost all of their post-election increase in optimism faded.

The tariff chaos has caused a deer-in-headlights moment for many firms. Executives don’t know how high tariffs will go, what products will be affected, or how long they’ll stay in place. Faced with deep uncertainty, some businesses are pulling back.

About 25% of CFOs say they have cut their 2025 hiring plans due to tariffs, according to the survey, which was conducted Feb. 18 to March 7. About 70% said trade policy will have no change to their hiring plans, while only 6% reported an increase.

Likewise, 25% of CFOs say they have cut their capital spending plans this year because of trade policy.

“Tariffs are first-order concern. At least in the short run, they are a great risk,” John Graham, professor of finance at Duke’s Fuqua School of Business, told CNN in a phone interview.

Only a “few” firms reported changing plans on hiring and spending because of immigration or corporate tax policy, the survey found.

In a statement to CNN, the White House said Trump’s economic agenda has already led to trillions of dollars of investments in the US, adding: “President Trump used tariffs to unleash historic economic, investment, job, and wage growth in his first term with no inflation, and he’ll repeat the magic again in his second term.”

The Duke CFO survey found that despite their worries about tariffs, own-firm optimism among CFOs fell more modestly than their economic optimism.

Tariffs are now the most important issue

Tariffs have catapulted up the worry list in Corporate America in recent weeks.

In the fourth quarter of last year, CFOs were asked for the most pressing concern facing their businesses. Tariffs only ranked No. 9.

Now, tariffs are No. 1 — by a long shot. In fact, Graham said the gap between tariffs and the No. 2 issue is the widest since the survey started asking the question 20 years ago.

Of course, unlike some of those other leading fears in the past such as Covid-19 and toxic mortgages, tariffs are part of an intentional White House policy aimed at leveling the playing field on trade.

“It’s self-inflicted, both because of the tariffs themselves and because of the way the tariffs have been rolled out,” Graham said.

Trump has endorsed tariffs as a critical tool in his policy arsenal. He has held up tariffs as a way to address a range of issues, including unfair trade tactics, high budget deficits, the loss of manufacturing jobs, perceived threats to the US dollar, illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl into the United States.

Yet the on-again, off-again nature of the trade war during Trump’s second term has rattled investors, weighed on crumbling consumer confidence and unnerved some business owners.

“I’m losing sleep over tariffs. A president has never made me lose sleep before,” said Ryan Messenger, CEO of First Rate Blinds, a family-owned business that sells blinds, shades, shutters and drapes.

Messenger, a North Carolina father of four who switched from voting for President Joe Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024, is alarmed by the roughly 20% increase in costs due to tariffs for some products his firm imports from Mexico.

His company plans to absorb a portion of the cost of the tariffs, eating into its bottom line, and pass along the rest to consumers in the form of significantly higher prices.

“Some people might not buy new shades,” Messenger said of the higher prices.

Messenger said the volatile trade policy has caused problems for his business. For instance, it’s not always clear what imports from Mexico are temporarily exempt from Trump’s 25% tariff on Mexico because they are compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the free trade agreement Trump signed during his first term.

“Everyone is scrambling and confused. It’s so messed up,” Messenger said, adding that some suppliers are increasing prices ahead of tariffs.

A plunge in consumer confidence

Tariffs could cause businesses to pull back on hiring due to higher costs and uncertainty.

One commercial builder in the CFO survey said: “Tariffs are a major concern … the potential cost escalation of imported raw materials will negatively impact us.”

Hiring plans can also be hurt by retaliatory tariffs lobbed by foreign countries on products made in America. Those tariffs can hurt demand for US goods.

Messenger said he’s not shocked that Trump is using tariffs, noting this was a campaign promise.

“Trump said he was going to do it. But I figured there’d be more thought involved. And it would just be a tool to get a better deal. But he’s the one who made the deal!” Messenger said, referring to USMCA.

The CFO survey is just the latest example of deteriorating sentiment around the economy.

A separate report, released Tuesday by The Conference Board, found that consumer confidence plunged in March to the lowest level since January 2021.

Of course, shifts in sentiment alone won’t necessarily damage the economy. Only real changes in behavior by consumers and businesses will.

Former Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore is increasingly worried about the ongoing plunge in consumer confidence.

“The reason I’m concerned is that perception can become reality,” Moore, a senior visiting fellow in economics at The Heritage Foundation, told CNN in a phone interview on Tuesday. “If people stop spending, that’s going to affect the real economy. That’s the worry.”

Moore blamed the drop in consumer confidence on political polarization and trade-war driven turbulence on Wall Street. He predicted a sustained recovery in stock prices will inspire a rebound in confidence.

“My policy advice for Republicans: Stop talking about tariffs and get the tax cuts done quickly,” Moore said.

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