Russia bans diesel exports after Ukrainian attacks, straining tense global market

By Anna Cooban, CNN

London (CNN) — Russia has fully banned exports of diesel after Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries triggered widespread fuel shortages and as the global energy market braces for more disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced the ban in a televised meeting alongside President Vladimir Putin, saying the decision was intended to “increase supplies to the domestic market.”

Russia had already imposed a partial ban that prevents non-producers, like fuel traders, from selling diesel abroad. Wednesday’s ban extends that restriction to producers, encompassing the entirety of the market, Natalia Losada, senior oil products analyst at Energy Aspects, explained to CNN.

Earlier in the week, Novak claimed that the Russian market was “fully supplied” with both diesel and gasoline, despite scenes of long lines of cars and trucks outside the country’s stations – putting the reality of its more than four-year war with Ukraine into sharp focus.

According to an analysis by CNN this week, almost all of Russia’s 83 regions have experienced gasoline shortages or reported disruptions to supply, with many gas stations imposing rationing and tensions between customers mounting. Russian media have reported that some people are waiting up to 18 hours in lines at the pump.

Ukrainian drones have also targeted fuel and power facilities in Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. NASA satellite imagery, posted by the Institute for the Study of War on X, shows far less electric light at night in Crimea now compared to a year ago.

Bad timing

Wednesday’s export ban comes at a difficult moment for the global energy market as the US-Iran ceasefire looks close to collapse, raising fears that the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which one fifth of the world’s oil traveled before the war – will all-but shut once again.

The US has also reimposed sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, depriving the global market of a potential boost to its overall supply.

“It’s pretty bad,” Losada said of the ban’s global impact. “On the other side we have (a geopolitical) crisis which is still not fully resolved and flows through Strait of Hormuz are still restrained.”

Davin Tonyan, senior research analyst at Kpler, wrote in a note Thursday that the ban adds “fresh impetus for (diesel) prices to climb” alongside renewed fighting between the US and Iran.

Tonyan noted that Ukrainian attacks had already suppressed Russia’s diesel exports, but that he expected the ban to be short-lived given the “cost of forgoing export revenue.”

Russia is the world’s second-largest exporter of diesel, behind the US, according to Kpler. Its biggest customers are Turkey and Brazil.

“Lower exports into these countries will mean (them) competing with Europe for US barrels (and those from the) Middle East and India,” Losada, at Energy Aspects, said.

Global benchmark diesel prices shot up almost 13% on Wednesday, though were down over 3% early morning ET, according to Intercontinental Exchange data.

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Anna Chernova, Zahra Ullah, Clare Sebastian, Svitlana Vlasova and Tim Lister contributed reporting.