World anxiously waits to see if US-Iran peace talks can deliver. Here’s what we know

By Lex Harvey, CNN

(CNN) — The lives of millions of people across the Middle East – and the fate of the global economy – will hinge on the outcome of make-or-break talks between the US and Iran this weekend in Pakistan.

The streets of the capital Islamabad have been emptied by a sudden two-day public holiday, declared to enforce strict security for the arrival of the American and Iranian delegations for their first talks since the beginning of the war.

A fragile two-week ceasefire that paved the way for the talks is holding for now. But Israel’s massive deadly bombardment of Hezbollah and disagreements over whether Lebanon is included in the truce could still derail the meetings.

Here’s what we know:

Who will be at the talks?

The talks between Iran and the United States are set to begin Saturday morning local time in Islamabad, according to the White House.

The US delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son in law.

Prior to his departure for Islamabad, Vance told reporters “We’re looking forward to the negotiation. I think it’s going to be positive.”

Tehran has not announced its delegation, but some local media reports say it will be led by the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. A regime insider with a reputation for suppressing dissent, Ghalibaf has emerged as a key interlocutor with the Trump administration throughout the war. Many of Iran’s leaders have been killed by US-Israeli strikes in recent weeks.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the talks a “make-or-break moment” in a national address on Friday, saying that hopefully, US and Iranian negotiators would meet Saturday.

“The Pakistani leadership will make sure these talks are successful by putting in their best efforts,” Sharif said. “It is all in God’s hands.”

What will they talk about?

Given the two sides can’t seem to agree about what’s in the ceasefire, aligning on the agenda for the talks may be tricky.

Trump has cited “a 10-point proposal from Iran,” which he called “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”

But then Iran began sharing a 10-point list that included demands the US could never agree to, such as acknowledging its control over the Strait of Hormuz and reparations for war damages and the lifting of all sanctions. Other versions published on state media also included recognizing the country’s right to nuclear enrichment.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump had been referring to a different 10-point plan that was “more reasonable.”

Meanwhile Trump and his team have their own 15-point proposal. That plan has not been revealed in full but is said to include Iran committing to no nuclear weapons, handing over its highly enriched uranium, limits on Tehran’s defense capabilities, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

A key question now is whether the talks will produce some sort of middle ground – or whether they will collapse and restart a war that has already wrought destruction across parts of the Middle East and sparked a historic global oil crisis.

What is happening in Lebanon?

Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire is an ongoing matter of contention which also risks upending the weekend’s talks.

Iran has repeatedly said the ceasefire covers attacks against its Lebanon-based proxy Hezbollah, echoing the stance of Pakistan, which helped broker the deal. But Israel and the US have said the ceasefire does not include Lebanon.

On Wednesday, just hours after the ceasefire came into effect, Israel launched its biggest wave of strikes in Lebanon since the war began, pounding busy neighborhoods without warning and killing at least 303 people and wounding more than 1,000, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.

The attacks drew swift global backlash and ire from Iran. Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, said Thursday that Lebanon and Iran’s proxies form an “inseparable part of the ceasefire” and that “time is running out.”

The next day, with Vance headed for Pakistan, Ghalibaf said that negotiations with the US cannot begin without a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets abroad.

Criticism of Israel has poured in from across the globe, including from European and Gulf powers fearful that the ceasefire could unravel before talks even begin.

Vance said there had been a “legitimate misunderstanding” regarding Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire. He also said Israelis may “check themselves a little bit” with their ongoing strikes.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel wants direct talks with Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah. Lebanon’s prime minister will travel to Washington in the coming days, a Lebanese government source told CNN.

Trump held a “tense” phone call with Netanyahu on Thursday, according to a US and a Israeli source familiar with the conversation, which came shortly before Israel announced it would seek direct ceasefire talks with Lebanon.

What about the Strait of Hormuz?

Reopening the critical waterway, which has been effectively shuttered by Iran for weeks, wreaking havoc on global oil markets, was another part of the deal, according to the White House.

But since the ceasefire, only a handful of vessels have been able to pass through the chokepoint. Hundreds of vessels are still stuck in the Persian Gulf with thousands of crew on board.

Iran halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after Israel attacked Lebanon, semi-official news agency Fars reported. Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliament speaker, doubled down on that posture, saying that “ceasefire violations carry explicit costs and STRONG responses.”

Vance on Thursday reiterated that if Iran does not follow through on promises to reopen the strait, the ceasefire will end. Trump also warned Iran against charging tolls on oil tankers in the key shipping lane.

Trump mocked Tehran’s negotiating position in a post on Truth Social on on Friday, saying Iran has “no cards” other than short-term “extortion” with the Strait of Hormuz.

Will the talks achieve anything?

Despite the confusion, US officials were moving quickly on Thursday to prepare for the negotiations, people familiar with the matter told CNN.

If Iran chooses to withdraw, “that would be dumb but that’s their choice,” Vance said.

Despite the disagreements, Trump told NBC he was “very optimistic” about a peace deal out of this weekend’s talks in Islamabad, telling the outlet that Iran’s leaders seemed open to peace in private discussions.

“They’re much more reasonable,” he told NBC. “They’re agreeing to all the things that they have to agree to. Remember, they’ve been conquered. They have no military.”

Iran’s public messaging is markedly different, with multiple state media outlets claiming the country has won a resounding victory by surviving the US and Israel’s onslaught and bringing Washington to the table.

And, even if the talks do go ahead, it’s hard to say whether the gulf between the two sides will be bridged over a weekend in Pakistan.

According to sources familiar with the ceasefire talks, the weekend meeting is expected to be the first of several intense negotiations regarding a longer term, lasting deal to end the war.

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Ross Adkin, Jessie Yeung, Michael Rios, Maureen Chowdhury, Dana Karni, Mohammed Tawfeeq, Tal Shalev, Lauren Said-Moorhouse, Tamara Qiblawi, Charbel Mallo, Jennifer Hansler, Kylie Atwood, Sophie Tanno, Magdalena Sofia Vitores Moreno, Rhea Mogul, Sophia Saifi and Riane Lumer contributed reporting.