Atmospheric river #1 departs Thursday, tracking a high impact storm this weekend
Recent data as of Thursday morning, show that Santa Barbara has already received over 2inches of rain. While the south facing slopes have seen the most precipitation, a majority of the Central Coast has already surpassed an inch and may quickly get upwards of an inch and a half. The storm is still very fast moving and a bulk of the rain is moving into LA county and further south. Wind reports show 50mph wind gusts near Gaviota. Strong winds and heavy rain caused a downed tree on Carrillo Street. Flooding concerns arise as doppler radar shows moderate to heavy rainfall, causing the National Weather Service to issue a Flood Advisory. Some smaller creeks, river and small roads are beginning to show signs of pooling, so take caution when leaving for work. Most of the impactful rain will depart a little after breakfast time and by the second half of the day showers will begin to taper off and chances of rain diminish.
We have a very slight chance for rainfall Friday, as the atmosphere remains unstable, but most data shows the areas staying dry until Sunday. Temperatures will cool off even further and highs will be a cool 58 degrees here in Santa Barbara. Winds return to the offshore pattern, helping temperatures cool below average. Overnight lows Friday will be cooler as well, so keep this in mind when departing Saturday morning and bundle up.
Saturday appears to be rather mundane, with a mixture of sun and clouds and temperatures falling into the middle to upper 50s. All the focus will be on Sunday, as a significant storm develops off the coast. Depending on the set up of this storm, we may see severe impacts. Some models indicate a significant amount of rain, and even if this system moves north or south, it will likely be an impressive storm. Right now models hold steady with a moisture rich atmospheric river pointed directly at the Central Coast. So, if this trajectory is correct, there is the possibility for upwards of 8inches of rain but take these numbers with a grain of salt as this storm is still far out. It is important to start the discussion however so the community can begin to prepare. Keep up to date on your most recent forecast, especially 24-48 hours before the storm, for the most accurate data.
