Tropical Depression Two takes aim at the Gulf Coast, threatening heavy rain and flooding

By Meteorologists Melissa Nord, Chris Dolce, CNN

(CNN) — Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm soon and track along the northern Gulf Coast the next few days.

Heavy rain, coastal flooding and tropical storm-force winds are all possible in its path.

Dry air and the depression’s large size have kept it from forming the persistent thunderstorms near its center that a healthy tropical cyclone needs to strengthen, despite fuel from near-record warm Gulf water.

Still, the tropical depression is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm Bertha on Monday.

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A tropical storm watch has been issued for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Ochlockonee River west to the Alabama-Mississippi border. In these locations, tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 36 to 48 hours. Additional watches could be issued farther west along the Louisiana and Texas coast in the next day or two.

Future Bertha is likely to encounter more roadblocks for it to strengthen in the next few days.

The path favored most by the National Hurricane Center is one where Bertha tracks along or makes landfall on the northern Gulf Coast near southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi by Wednesday.

This would prevent it from intensifying much because tropical systems weaken over land. It would also face an increasing amount of storm-killing wind shear, which is the change in speed or direction of winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Those unfavorable factors could even cause the system to dissipate over Louisiana, but the latest forecast calls for it to reach the Upper Texas Coast as a tropical storm by late week.

Impacts expected on Gulf Coast starting Monday

Regardless of the system’s fate, heavy rainfall, gusty winds and some coastal flooding will impact the northern Gulf Coast Monday night through at least midweek.

Here’s what to expect:

• Rainfall: Widespread totals of 2 to 4 inches, with up to 8 inches in the strongest thunderstorms, are possible from the western Florida Panhandle to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and possibly the Texas coast. This could trigger flash flooding, especially in urban areas like New Orleans.

• Wind: Tropical storm conditions — sustained winds over 40 mph — are possible in the tropical storm watch area Monday night into Tuesday. Higher gusts in thunderstorms could cause isolated power outages.

• Storm surge: Water levels could rise 1 to 3 feet above normal along the coast of Florida’s Big Bend to the Mississippi border, including Mobile Bay, Alabama, which would cause at least minor coastal flooding. The Louisiana coast will also likely see rising water levels by Wednesday, but how much is still uncertain.

It has been more than a month since a named storm was in the Atlantic basin. Tropical Storm Arthur formed mid-June and made landfall hours later on the Texas coast near Galveston.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a lower-than-average number of named systems in the Atlantic this season due to the formation and strengthening of El Niño.

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