Germany’s far-right AfD is poised for power – and split on whether to cozy up to Trump

By Lauren Kent, Sebastian Shukla, CNN

(CNN) — The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is speeding into state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday with a sizeable lead in the polls. If the party gets an outright majority, it will put the far right in charge of a state for the first time since World War II.

The party is projected to get 42% of the vote in the eastern German state, according to pollster Infratest dimap – a massive jump compared to its support just a couple years ago, and potentially enough to propel it to power in the country’s electoral system.

But there are roadblocks to the AfD expanding its success in mainstream German politics.

The party has been classified as “extremist” by German intelligence for its rhetoric in relation to Muslim citizens of Germany and on immigration, and it’s been denounced by mainstream conservatives and progressives alike.

All other parties in the country operate a so-called “firewall” – an unwritten rule to not form a coalition with the AfD or work together in parliament. If the AfD doesn’t get an absolute majority in Sunday’s elections, all other parties could form a ragtag coalition to shut it out of power in the state.

It’s partly that isolation at home that has compelled the AfD to seek out ties with the United States’ MAGA movement.

It’s also partly the shared right-wing politics and the brazen rhetoric and branding – hats with the slogan “Make Germany Great Again” are not uncommon at AfD events now. And the ties go well beyond merch.

The party’s co-leader Alice Weidel met with US Vice President JD Vance on the sidelines of the Munch Security Conference last year. Before that, she also joined Elon Musk for a livestream event on his platform, X. And a small group of AfD politicians travelled to Washington for US President Donald Trump’s second inauguration.

In return, Trump administration officials have also lent the party a hand on several occasions. Vance used his 2025 speech in Munich to urge German lawmakers to end their “firewall” against the far-right. Secretary of State Marco Rubio decried German authorities officially labelling the party as extremist, calling the decision “tyranny in disguise.”

But as Trump continues to raise eyebrows in Europe for some of his foreign policy moves – particularly the war in Iran, saber-rattling in Greenland and intervention in Venezuela – some factions of the AfD now appear interested in keeping their distance.

It comes as the United States’ reputation among the German public has fallen and many of Trump’s foreign policy decisions are widely disliked. A poll by Germany’s public broadcaster ARD in March found that 58% of Germans considered the attacks on Iran unjustified. And in January, another ARD poll found that 72% of the population considered the arrest of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro unjustified.

“I think there is ideological alignment on key issues, and I think the AfD is also learning from the MAGA movement,” said Almut Möller, the director for European and global affairs at the European Policy Centre, a think tank in Brussels. The two parties particularly align when it comes to rhetoric about how the country should “care about (its) own people and stop caring about everybody else,” Möller said.

“Having said that, it is not a straightforward relationship to handle at all times,” Möller told CNN, particularly when it comes to “policies that affect the German economy,” such as the Trump tariffs or pain at the gas pump amid the Iran war.

Against that backdrop, the leaders of the AfD have yo-yoed back and forth between praising Trump’s domestic stances on immigration, culture war issues and nationalism, while criticizing his interference in other countries.

‘It would be weird if Trump would protect German interests’

The AfD lawmaker who also serves as the party’s foreign policy spokesperson, Markus Frohnmaier, told CNN he has made multiple trips to the United States this year and has fostered strong links with the MAGA movement. Speaking in his office in the Bundestag just days before the election, he said their politics have plenty in common, especially on the issue of immigration.

The AfD has campaigned on proposals to deport migrants and refugees, as well as expand mass detention facilities – a policy widely referred to as “remigration.”

Party officials have frequently used anti-Muslim rhetoric and singled out Muslim and Ukrainian residents when talking about who they wish to deport.

Another pledge is to create separate schools for the children of refugees, to teach them the curriculum of their home countries.

With a US border patrol cap displayed on his bookcase, Frohnmaier called Trump’s handling of migration “really impressive,” adding, “I think this is something what we need in Germany too – a really good border control, probably something like ICE, and that would improve the situation dramatically.”

Frohnmaier also has in his office a famous 2020 photo of Trump holding a bible at a Washington, DC, church amid protests near the White House. But Frohnmaier was clear that there are American policies he doesn’t support.

“My colleagues and friends in the US know that we are more critical when it comes to the war in Iran,” he said.

When it comes to the hot-button issue of US tariffs, Frohnmaier said, “I mean, it would be a bit weird if Donald Trump would protect German interests, right?”

“It’s okay to agree not in all points with each other… They need to protect American interests, and we’re German, and we try to protect our interests,” he told CNN.

Frohnmaier, who has also made multiple trips to Russia, has walked a careful tightrope in his foreign policy role – courting MAGA Republicans at the same time as establishing ties with Kremlin insiders.

‘We see American interests, we see Russian interests’

For supposedly a state-level election, Russia has been a feature.

“We’re quite transparent about saying that we want an especially good relationship with Russia, of course, but also with the United States of America, because those are simply important players in this world,” said Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD candidate for the premiership in Saxony-Anhalt, who would lead the state in the event that his party gets an outright majority of votes on Sunday.

“We see American interests, we see Russian interests, but we have our own interest, namely the German interest,” Siegmund told CNN in an August interview.

The AfD’s support of Russia is no secret – the party is against further aid and defense packages for Ukraine, often referring to defense funding for Kyiv as money that is not being spent on programs for German people.

Key party officials have also made frequent trips to Moscow, St. Petersberg and the occupied Crimean peninsula – something that has raised alarm bells among corruption watchdogs.

The AfD has also vowed to bring back the cheap Russian gas that once fueled Germany but has been phased out following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

But for eastern states, like Saxony-Anhalt, which were once under the purview of the Soviet Union, Möller said “it runs deeper than the cost of energy. There is a long tradition of working with Russia in Germany.”

Culture wars coming to Germany

Of course, issues of foreign relations and immigration aren’t decided on the state level.

Analyst Grégoire Roos, the director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programs at Chatham House, said he would expect the AfD to lean more into issues of culture, education and local policing if it secures power in Saxony-Anhalt.

“You would likely see patterns comparable to those we’ve seen in the US in terms of how you change school programs, put pressure on police forces,” Roos told CNN.

Roos also said he would expect to see the AfD state government take up “cultural fights” such as banning LGBTQ+ flags, restricting inclusion policies in schools, creating rules to raise the German flag in schools and possibly enacting changes in history books.

“I think those would not transform daily life, as such, but it would infringe on some of some of what is seen as basic liberties in Germany,” the analyst said. “They will understand that this is a laboratory, a window to or magnifying glass put on what they could deliver at a national scale, and so they would focus on symbols.”

A win would also give the AfD a presence in Germany’s upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat, which would be a symbolic win for the party, but would likely not move the needle much on national policy.

“This is of course a strong opportunity to basically show that they’re at the gates of power now,” Möller added. “Even though Saxony-Anhalt is a small federal state and has less than 2 million inhabitants, this will resonate more widely.”

The polls indicate the election could go either way. All other mainstream parties in Saxony-Anhalt are polling at 54% combined, according to Infratest dimap. Some of those parties won’t even reach the 5% threshold to have any of their votes counted, which is why the AfD could secure power with less than half the electorate.

Taken together, it means the AfD’s projected support of 42% presents a loud knock on those gates of power.

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