Who might replace Iran’s supreme leader? There’s no clear successor

By Abbas Al Lawati, CNN

(CNN) — Iran’s clerical regime now faces the prospect of trying to find a successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following his killing in joint US-Israeli strikes.

The veteran leader, who ruled with an iron fist for nearly four decades, does not have an officially declared heir. Instead, an elected body of 88 senior clerics, known as the Assembly of Experts, will select the next leader.

It’s a task that has only been carried out by the clerical body once since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979, when Khamenei was hastily chosen on the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini more than three decades ago.

The ruling establishment will want to move quickly to show stability in the republic, with members of the assembly expected to convene soon to deliberate over possible candidates before naming Khamenei’s replacement.

But it is unclear whether they can even risk any gathering given US President Donald Trump has vowed that the joint US-Israeli bombing campaign targeting the regime will continue in the days ahead.

The jurists would need to choose a successor who meets the qualifications stipulated in the constitution. The new leader must be male, a cleric with political competence, moral authority, and loyalty to the Islamic Republic. The assembly may interpret the rules to exclude reformist clerics who favor greater social freedoms and engagement with the outside world.

CNN takes a look at some of the contenders for the position, according to experts and analysts.

Mojtaba Khamenei, 56

The second son of Khamenei, Mojtaba is known to wield significant influence behind the scenes and has strong links with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the most powerful military body in the country, as well as its Basij volunteer paramilitary force.

But father-to-son succession is frowned upon in the Shiite Muslim clerical establishment and particularly in a revolutionary Iran that came about after toppling a widely reviled monarchy. An additional hurdle is that Mojtaba is not a high-ranking cleric and has no official role in the regime. He was sanctioned by the US in 2019.

Alireza Arafi, 67

A lesser-known figure, Arafi is an established cleric with a track record in government institutions who was also a confidant of Khamenei.

He currently serves as deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts and has been a member of the powerful Guardian Council, which vets election candidates and laws passed by parliament. He is also head of Iran’s seminary system.

According to Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute, Khamenei’s willingness to appoint Arafi to senior and strategically sensitive positions showed he had “a great deal of confidence in his bureaucratic abilities.” Still, Arafi isn’t known to be a political heavyweight and doesn’t have close ties to the security establishment.

He is said to be tech-savvy and fluent in Arabic and English, as well as having published 24 books and articles, Vatanka wrote.

Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, early 60s

Mirbagheri is a hardline cleric and a member of the Assembly of Experts who represents the most conservative wing of the clerical establishment.

He was recently reported to have justified the high death toll in Israel’s war in Gaza by saying that the death of even half the world’s population is “worth it” if it achieves closeness to God.

According to IranWire, an activist outlet, he is strongly opposed to the West and believes a conflict between believers and infidels is inevitable. He currently heads the Islamic Sciences Academy in the northern holy city of Qom.

Hassan Khomeini, early 50s

Khomeini is the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, giving him religious and revolutionary legitimacy.

He serves as the custodian of the Khomeini mausoleum but hasn’t held public office and appears to have little influence with the country’s security apparatus or ruling elite. He is known to be less hardline than many of his peers and was barred from running for the Assembly of Experts in 2016.

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri, late 60s

Bushehri is a senior cleric closely linked to the institutions that manage succession, particularly the Assembly of Experts, where he serves as first deputy chairman.

He is said to have been close to Khamenei but has a low profile domestically and isn’t known to have strong ties to the IRGC.

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