AI could force 11 million US workers into new careers by 2035

By Alicia Wallace, CNN

(CNN) — Millions of Americans may need to find an entirely new career in the next decade, according to research released Tuesday.

An estimated 11 million workers, or about 6.5% of the current labor force, might have to jump into entirely different occupations by 2035 as a result of automation and artificial intelligence adoption, according to a report from consulting firm McKinsey & Co.

The McKinsey Global Institute report predicts that AI could create more jobs than it kills in the next nine years; however, the technological innovation “may require the largest and most sustained workforce transformation in US history.”

“While social media abounds with dire predictions about the impact of AI on labor, the United States is likely to have more jobs available in 2035 than today, but with fewer workers because the population is aging,” according to the report.

McKinsey researchers’ base estimate is that automation could reduce labor demand by 36 million jobs by 2035, while growth in AI-related fields and the broader economy could generate demand for 40 million jobs during that time.

About 25 million of those 36 million affected workers should be able to stay in their current occupations because growth in their industries should offset the impact of automation, McKinsey noted.

“The remaining 11 million may need to switch occupations entirely,” researchers wrote in the report. “The next decade’s challenge is mobility, not scarcity.”

AI impacts notwithstanding, the US labor market already is undergoing a historic transformation as Baby Boomers retire, net immigration slows, and exogenous shocks ripple through the economy.

For two years running, the job market has been in a “low-hire, low-fire” state, a sluggish turnover environment with opportunities for the few but not the many.

Labor market remains sluggish

That lack of churn was underscored in a separate report released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Job openings, a closely watched measure of worker demand, fell to a five-month low at the end of August; the rate of voluntary quits (a gauge of worker confidence) remained near a six-year low; and layoffs shrank for the second month in a row.

This story is developing and will be updated.

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