Tougher rules will mean less pandemic pain in the coming weeks
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY, Calif. -- If Santa Barbara County wants to avoid a possible medical overload in the coming weeks from COVID-19 cases, it may want to consider even tougher restrictions on its population.
The County Public Health Department Director Van Do-Reynoso told Santa Barbara County Supervisors that, with the toughest restrictions placed, the number of new cases drops drastically according to a new study shown Monday morning.
Staying the course as it is now with strict rules on distancing and the "Stay Well at Home" plan will keep COVID-19 cases manageable.
Currently 83 percent of all the County coronavirus cases are reported to be people who have recovered or who are recovering at home.
Various models are being used including a recent one released from Los Angeles County as it looks ahead to the summer months.
If the rules were relaxed to pre-COVID-19, the infection rate will be 95.6 percent by August 1. If they stay the same, the rate will be 29.8 percent. If they are increased to extremely tough levels, the rate will be 5.5 percent.
Do-Reynoso says Governor Gavin Newsom's order allows counties to be more restrictive but not less restrictive.
In Santa Barbara County, for example, beaches were open for those arriving on foot over Easter weekend, but many parking areas were sealed off. In Ventura County, the beaches and parking lots were closed.
State parks in the area, including the popular spots on the waterfront, were closed a week ago.
A hot spot is getting special attention, and that's the Lompoc Federal Penitentiary where 45 cases have been reported as of Friday. Health officials are working aggressively with the prison staff to reduce the cases of the disease and keep it from spreading.
The County is also preparing a plan to add new locations for emergency beds based on a possible surge in cases.
The formula is based on surpassing 50 percent of the current bed supply, that's when Do-Reynoso says new locations for beds will be constructed.
The County prepared a graph last week showing it has 569 hospital beds for COVID-19 patients, 131 intensive care beds and 97 ventilators. There would still be other beds available for non-COVID patients.
"Staying at home and physical distancing will allow our hospital systems to maintain intact and provide services who all who need that care," said Do-Reynoso.
DOUBLE EXPOSURE
Health officials say they are hoping for an increase in testing in two to three weeks. Then they will know which members of the community have been exposed and have at least some immunity.
There are however conflicting interpretations. In one study, it says "once you have been exposed you could be 60 percent immune". Another report from Italy says it is, "only 10. So there is a wide variance."
Do-Reynoso said there are many unknowns, "We are so new to this."
