Millions of travelers could skip visiting the US if proposed social media policy is implemented, industry experts warn

By Jeanne Marie Bonner, CNN

(CNN) — Ahead of a proposed rule change that would require social media account information from some foreign travelers to the United States, international travel experts are saying the policy could further deter visitors from coming to the US — a decline that could translate into billions of dollars in lost revenue for the travel sector.

The warning — from the World Travel & Tourism Council — comes after the global industry group surveyed nearly 5,000 international residents who regularly travel abroad and found one-third of respondents would be somewhat or much less likely to visit the US if applicants to the Visa Waiver Program are required to submit information about their social media accounts.

The potential decline in travelers could cost the US an estimated $15.7 billion in lost visitor spending, according to WTTC. Under one scenario, the US could miss out on as many as 4.7 million international arrivals, which would represent a 23% drop in visitors from ESTA countries in 2026.

Gloria Guevara, president of WTTC, told CNN the proposed change could cost the US more than 150,000 jobs and “put the US at a competitive disadvantage.”

The travelers affected have other destination options, she said in an interview on CNN International’s “Quest Means Business,” and they consider the request for social media account information “intrusive.”

“There are so many places to travel, and the ESTA travelers will choose another destination,” she said. “We will see a decline and the decline is translated into jobs.”

Last year was a banner year in travel globally, she noted; countries all around the world saw increases in the number of visitors.

“That was not the case for the US,” she said.

Two-thirds of the 4,563 travelers surveyed – who hail from Australia, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom, among other countries – said they were aware of the proposed policy already. And a large share of them said it would make the US feel less welcoming and less attractive for both leisure and business travel, according to the WTTC survey results.

The proposed rule change, which was posted last year on the Federal Register by US Customs and Border Protection, would affect travelers using the Electronic System for Travel Authorization, or ESTA, as part of a Visa Waiver Program for citizens from more than three dozen countries that include England, Australia, Japan, Italy, Ireland, Israel, Chile and Qatar.

ESTA is an online application that grants visitors from the 42 eligible countries the right to visit the US for under 90 days without a visa. Currently visitors who use ESTA are asked to supply information such as passport numbers, birth dates and prior criminal activity.

Industry worries

According to the proposal in the Federal Register, the new policy would be in accordance with one of President Trump’s executive orders aimed at protecting the US from foreign terrorists and reducing public safety threats.

It’s unclear exactly what social media information would be required or how the information collected would impact travelers who want to come to the US. The Federal Register posting says ESTA applicants would need to provide “social media from the last 5 years.”

A question requesting social media information was initially added to the application in 2016, with the section marked as “optional.” The information would be mandatory under the new proposal.

CNN Travel has requested more information from CBP.

But according to the Greater Miami and the Beaches Hotel Association, government officials have told them privately visitors would need to provide account names or handles but would not be required to provide access to accounts or specific posts and the CBP would not review every applicant’s social media activity.

“CBP has been explicit that social media accounts would not be reviewed for comments, posts or activity critical of President Trump or other political leaders. Under the proposal, CBP would collect usernames solely to check them against classified information the government already has,” the association said in a post on its blog this month.

The policy, however, remains of great concern for the association, which noted Miami will be one of the hosts of the FIFA World Cup.

“Our success depends on the ease, and perception of ease, of international travel,” said the hotel association.

In a separate move, the State Department has already instructed embassies and consulates that they may scrutinize student visa applicants for “hostile attitudes towards our citizens, culture, government, institutions, or founding principles.”

According to those guidelines, applicants are required to make their profiles public, and lack of an online social media history could be seen as a negative factor that could count against them in the application process.

The new proposal — which will be open for public comment until February 9 – looms as the US is already seeing a drop in international visitors, which could have a chilling effect on marquee events this year such as America’s 250th birthday celebration and the World Cup games in soccer.

The U.S. Travel Association reported a 3.5% decline in inbound overseas travel in November compared with November 2024, which was consistent with statistics from the whole second half of 2025. Travel from Canada is down double digits, the group noted, although Canada would not be affected by the proposed rule change.

In a statement released last year, officials with U.S. Travel said the proposed policy for ESTA applicants was worrisome, particularly without more information from the CBP about the rule change.

“There are legitimate questions from travelers about what information they might need to provide, and from security experts as to whether this policy would meaningfully increase America’s security,” the organization’s statement read. “One thing that isn’t in question: this policy could have a chilling effect on travel to the United States.”

The proposed changes to the visa waiver application would also include adding fields for applicants to provide phone numbers used over the past five years and email addresses used over a 10-year period, plus contact information for close family members, along with their birthplaces, residences and phone numbers over the prior five years.

Since taking office, the Trump administration has made sweeping changes to nearly every facet of the immigration process, tightening every legal and illegal form of entry into the United States.

And it’s created concern for those in the travel sector that international visitors will go elsewhere.

“Visa Waiver Program travelers come here to do deals with American businesses, buy American products and experience the beauty of our great nation,” the U.S. Travel Association said in a statement. “If we get this policy wrong, millions of travelers could take their business and the billions of dollars they spend elsewhere, only making America weaker.”

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CNN’s Lauren Chadwick and Michael Williams contributed to this report.