Battle to replace McConnell remains wide-open as top candidates quietly woo key senators — and Trump

By Manu Raju, Ted Barrett and Lauren Fox, CNN

(CNN) — Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell’s potential successors have been crisscrossing the country, cozying up to former President Donald Trump and barnstorming key battleground states in the final days of the election to help their party win back the Senate — and help themselves, too.

Sen. John Cornyn and Senate GOP Whip John Thune, the two top candidates to succeed McConnell, have been pouring millions into GOP candidates’ campaign accounts and stumping for them on the trail — part of an effort to lock up support when the secret-ballot leadership election takes place on November 13. GOP senators and top aides say the race could go either way.

A major wild card hanging over the race: The fallout from the presidential election that takes place the week before and the role that Trump will play in trying to anoint a leader if he wins. Yet if Trump loses, Thune and Cornyn will have to make their case on how the GOP can dig out of the political wilderness, arguments that senators say could carry great weight as they cast their secret ballots.

Nevertheless, both Cornyn and Thune recognize Trump’s potential sway, especially with a faction of the GOP conference, and have been zeroing in on bolstering their ties with the former president over the last several months.

When Trump stumped in Reno, Nevada last month, Cornyn was pictured next to the former president, both flashing a grin and a thumbs up. And when Trump taped a podcast interview in October with Joe Rogan in Austin, Texas, Cornyn was on the tarmac.

“Glad to welcome President Trump to Texas,” Cornyn posted on X, with a picture aboard Trump’s plane.

After Thune met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago in March, they’ve spoken several times since. Thune also met with the chairs of Trump’s transition team, Howard Lutnick and Linda McMahon, in Washington earlier this month, according to a person familiar with the matter, and Cornyn did as well.

A third leadership candidate, Sen. Rick Scott, who is seen by senators as a long-shot in the race, has also been in regular contact with Trump in their home state of Florida, but has been consumed with his own reelection campaign this fall. Scott, who is a McConnell critic, has been more willing to fall in line with Trump than Cornyn or Thune over the last several years.

“We need to have someone who is going to represent the Trump voters,” Scott told right-wing activist Laura Loomer on a podcast last week. “So, that’s what I’m running on.”

Some Republicans say Trump should stay out of the race altogether.

Sen. Markwayne Mullin, who backs Thune, said he’s spoken to Trump about the leadership race virtually every time he’s seen him.

“I’d advise him just to stay out of the race,” Mullin told CNN, echoing the views of many GOP senators who believe picking their leader is a decision for senators, not Trump.

McConnell, the longest-serving party leader in Senate history, has not said whom he supports to be his successor. Both Thune and Cornyn are closely politically aligned with the longtime GOP leader.

The two Johns

Most Republican senators are keeping a close hold on who they will back, making it difficult to gauge who has the advantage in the race. Newly elected senators will participate in the election, while those leaving the Senate will not.

“There’s not a bad choice there, and I’m going to wait till November to make my secret ballot,” said West Virginia Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, who is running to move up in GOP leadership.

Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, the current No. 3 Senate Republican, also refused to say who, he is backing. “My focus right now is number one, Donald Trump, President of the United States. Number two, a large majority for Republicans in the US Senate,” he said.

Barrasso appears poised to replace Thune as whip regardless of who succeeds McConnell because Thune is term limited out after holding the post for six years.

Cornyn was the whip — the No. 2 position — for six years before Thune and ran the National Republican Senatorial Committee before that, roles that allowed him to build close relationships with many senators. Cornyn’s role running the NRSC for two cycles helped him build a fundraising juggernaut that he has used to regularly donate large sums to his GOP colleagues for many years, something that his allies believe could give him an edge.

But there are several GOP senators who have come to the Senate after Cornyn’s stint in elected leadership and have only known Thune as whip.

Whips play a critical and influential role because they must build trust with rank-and-file members who they ask to be privately candid with them about their political needs and vulnerabilities when it comes to votes on legislation, nominees and other matters.

Asked if he would like to get more public endorsements from GOP senators, Thune said he is not asking anyone to do that.

“It’s not something I’m asking people to do. I think that perhaps happens in the week when we get back because then it becomes a live exercise. I’m having my conversations and feel good about where we are,” Thune said before the Senate adjourned for a pre-election recess.

Cornyn said he thinks a lot of senators don’t want to make a final decision on whom to support until they get in the room to vote.

“I think that people don’t want to make decisions early so we continue to talk to members about everything from the heavy lifting we need to do next year to things like fundraising to the whole ball of wax. But no decisions until probably that day,” he said in September.

The two have met repeatedly with GOP senators to gauge what changes they would like to see in terms of how the Senate would operate under their leadership.

In a letter to colleagues in September, Cornyn praised Thune and Scott for conducting the leadership race in a “respectful and civil manner.” He pledged to increase the influence of committee chairs to shape legislation and get it considered on the floor. He also promised to preserve the legislative filibuster, something most Democrats — and even Trump — have said they want to ditch.

“We must reject all attempts to nuke the legislative filibuster,” Cornyn wrote. “Liberal activists will rue the day when the shoe is on the other foot.”

Thune agreed: “We are all committed to the filibuster, and I’ve been having conversations with my colleagues, some multiple conversations, and so I’m listening to what their views are on what they want to see in the next leader and talking about how I would do the job.”

Neither Cornyn nor Thune comes naturally from the MAGA wing of the party, but both have recognized its power and moved to embrace — and formally endorse — Trump. But it hasn’t always been the case, particularly for Thune.

When Thune told CNN that Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election would “go down like a shot dog,” Trump called on a Republican to primary Thune in his 2022 Senate bid.

Trump called on South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem to challenge Thune, which she ultimately declined to do.

“I hope to see the great Governor of South Dakota @KristiNoem, run against RINO @SenJohnThune, in the upcoming 2022 Primary. She would do a fantastic job in the U.S. Senate, but if not Kristi, others are already lining up. South Dakota wants strong leadership, NOW!,” Trump tweeted at the time.

After the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, Thune called Trump’s actions that day and in the days leading up to the attack “inexcusable” even though he declined to vote to convict Trump in the impeachment trial following the attack. Thune also called on Trump to drop out of the 2016 race in the wake of the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape.

And Thune and Cornyn have both raised questions about whether Trump’s message would be enough to win and appeal to a broad swath of the electorate.

“For him to win the general election, he’s got to start running a general election campaign, which will mean his message is going to have to appeal to those independent voters and moderate Republicans,” Thune, who initially endorsed GOP Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina for president, told CNN back in early 2024.

Cornyn, who backed Trump after his New Hampshire primary victory, also raised questions about his electability.

“After a primary there needs to be a broader appeal than just to primary voters,” Cornyn told CNN. “You can’t win with just your own base.”

‘We all want to win a majority’

Trying to ensure they lead a majority, not a minority, if elected leader, Thune and Cornyn have raised millions of dollars to support GOP candidates and made scores of visits to states in support of those running.

“We all want to win a majority and that’s what we’re all focused on,” Thune said. “I think the team realized we want to have the next leader be the majority leader and so everyone is doing what they can to make sure we get the majority.”

Thune has raised $31 million this cycle, some of which he sent to the NRSC and some directly to candidates, according to his allies. The $4 million he gave to the NRSC set a record for the most money given to the organization. And it means he’s given $9 million to the NRSC over his lifetime.

Thune also appeared or is scheduled to appear at 200 events this cycle for candidates or the NRSC making him the most active member for the Senate GOP campaign arm behind its chairman, Sen. Steve Daines of Montana.

Thune’s supporters note some unique qualities to argue he’s the best person for the job, saying that he is the only candidate who has been a committee chair and is the only candidate who was a top negotiator on the 2017 Trump tax package, though Cornyn played a heavy role ushering through the bill as well.

Thune’s backers also note that he is the only candidate who raised $2 million at a DC fundraiser for Trump, amounting to half the total raised at the event.

They also point out his remarkable ascent – he defeated then-Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle in 2004 and is now on a path to possibly becoming GOP leader.

While Thune has ramped up his giving to his colleagues as McConnell bowed out, Cornyn has been a prodigious fundraiser for many years, methodically building a fundraising machine that has backed challengers and incumbents. It was boosted, in part, by his running the NRSC from 2009 to 2013.

He said recently he had reached “an extraordinary milestone,” of raising over $400 million since coming to the Senate in 2002. This means he’s been the top Senate Republican fundraiser in the last 15 years with the exception of McConnell. The bulk of that, he said, “went directly to Senate Republican colleagues and candidates, leadership PACs, and the NRSC.”

Cornyn, who served as GOP whip for the first two years under Trump and helped usher through his agenda, also cut a major deal with Democrats in the Biden administration to overhaul gun laws in the wake of the Uvalde school shooting. This cycle, he has been traveling to raise money for Senate challengers in Michigan, Indiana, Nevada and elsewhere as well as attending fundraisers for the Trump-Vance ticket.

He has raised $26 million for this election cycle alone, $11.8 million for the NRSC, according to his allies.

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