Hurricane Nolo approaches Hawaii as it rapidly intensifies in El Niño-charged Pacific
By Meteorologists Mary Gilbert, Chris Dolce, Dakota Smith and CNN’s Kate S. Petersen
(CNN) — Hawaii’s southern islands are bracing for a brush with Hurricane Nolo, the latest in a gauntlet of Pacific storms thrown at the state during a tropical season supercharged by this year’s super El Niño.
Potentially life-threatening flooding and mudslides are again possible as the state faces its third impactful swipe from a hurricane in just six weeks.
Nolo rapidly intensified into a Category 1 hurricane early Friday morning. The hurricane was about 200 miles south of Hawaii’s Big Island moving generally north. Rapid intensification is an increase in maximum sustained wind speeds of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less, and it’s happening more frequently in a world warming due to fossil fuel pollution.
The Big Island will see the worst of Nolo’s impacts as it continues to strengthen and makes its closest approach late Friday through Saturday local time. Extreme rain will be its most serious threat, but Nolo will also bring strong wind and dangerous seas.
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Hurricane Lala took a similarly close track to the Big Island in mid-August as a Category 1 storm and unleashed catastrophic flooding there. On the other side of the state, Hurricane Lowell delivered a blow to Kauai and Niihau in early September as a Category 2 storm.
Hawaii Gov. Josh Green has declared a state of emergency, the third storm-related emergency declaration this month, in anticipation of the storm’s impacts.
Potentially devastating repeat
Nolo is expected to make its closest approach to the Big Island as a high-end Category 2 hurricane or a Category 3 major hurricane.
A few of Nolo’s outermost rainbands started to brush the Big Island Thursday night, local time. They’ll reach more of the island on Friday and spread to Maui, Lanai and Molokai by Saturday.
Forecast rainfall totals have lowered a bit in recent hours, but a dangerous amount of rain is still possible.
Ten to 15 inches of rain are possible over eastern and southern portions of the Big Island through Sunday, with up to 25 inches in the steepest terrain, according to the National Hurricane Center. Last month, the Big Island’s steep mountains helped wring more than 40 inches of rain out of Hurricane Lala’s bands, unleashing catastrophic flash flooding from which the island is still recovering.
Nolo’s rainfall is expected to be lower, but still significant on the western side of the island, with up to 8 inches possible.
In Maui, 4 to 6 inches are possible with isolated amounts up to 10 inches. About 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected elsewhere on the main islands.
Nolo’s close pass as a potential major hurricane means damaging winds are also a considerable threat. Tropical storm-force winds stronger than 40 mph are likely and hurricane-force winds stronger than 75 mph are possible on the Big Island’s south side Friday through at least Saturday. Stronger gusts are likely in the island’s high elevations.
Hawaii battens down — again
State and county offices, public schools and the University of Hawaii are closed Thursday and Friday on the Big Island and will close Friday on Maui, Gov. Green said in a social media post.
County officials have opened shelters on the Big Island. “If your home flooded before, or is at risk, consider moving to safer shelter before the full force of the storm hits,” Hawaii County Mayor Kimo Alameda said in a Wednesday news release. “Because the ground remains saturated, flooding may happen rapidly.”
The state has also secured 100 hotel rooms for Big Island residents who wish to evacuate, Green said at a Wednesday news conference. Statewide, hundreds of people are still being housed in hotels after being displaced by earlier natural disasters, including hurricanes Lala and Lowell, Department of Human Services director Joseph Campos said at the same conference.
On Maui, officials have been preparing emergency generators and storm response equipment, and increasing staffing at police and fire departments, the county said in a social media post. Bus service will be suspended at different points through the weekend.
Offshore, dangerous seas will build and reach their peak Friday and Saturday. Rough conditions will likely last through the weekend and into next week even as the hurricane starts to track west away from the island Sunday night into Monday.
Super El Niño’s dominance
This year’s super El Nino has helped prime the Pacific to be a factory for strong tropical systems, with extremely warm ocean water and a lack of storm-killing wind shear.
Nolo is one of 19 named storms — including three Category 5 hurricanes — that have roamed the eastern and central Pacific so far and there are two full months of the season left to go. Seventeen originated in the eastern Pacific basin, which typically sees up to 15 storms in an entire season.
For the second time this month, a trio of hurricanes — Nolo, Odalys and Polo — are simultaneously churning in the Pacific.
Polo, which is still roaring off the coast of southern Mexico, is one of five storms this season that have met the criteria for extreme rapid intensification, a wind increase of 58 mph or more in 24 hours.
The-CNN-Wire
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