El Niño-powered Kelvin wave raising sea level and concerns along Central Coast
BAYWOOD PARK, Calif. (KEYT) - Waves are crashing higher along the San Luis Obispo County coastline, with water levels on the San Luis Obispo County North Coast measuring more than a foot above expected levels.
The higher water has been apparent to people who are frequent visitors to the picturesque coastline.
"It just feels bigger," said Kolea Quincey, who lives near the water in Baywood Park. "It's like the waves are crashing and coming up higher and actually spraying on people on their walk, so I have noticed that. It just feels more powerful. "
Longtime Central Coast meteorologist John Lindsey explained the elevated sea levels are consistent with a coastal Kelvin wave that is currently moving along the California coastline.
The phenomenon is associated with El Niño, which is continuing to strengthen in the Pacific Ocean thousands of miles away.
"We are currently now in a very strong El Niño event and this particular condition is strengthening as we speak,” Lindsey said. "There's about an 83% chance that this could be the strongest El Niño ever recorded since 1950."
Unlike ordinary waves that break along the shoreline, Kelvin waves are large, slow-moving bulges of water that travel beneath the ocean's surface, raising sea levels as they move.
Lindsey said the wave travels at about six miles per hour, covering roughly 150 miles a day and reached the Central Coast last week, contributing to the higher than normal sea levels.
"We actually got about 1.3 feet higher than predicted tides," said Lindsey "Predicted tides are the differentials and gravitational forces between the sun and the moon and the Earth and it's a pretty complex equation to come up with the predicted tides, but the actual tide levels are measured at Port San Luis at the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) tide station. At one time those got about 1.3 feet higher than predicted. Consequently the low tides are much, much higher and the high tides were especially much higher. Last week, we were seeing tides predicted at about 5.8 feet and they actually came in at about 7.1 feet and those are some of the highest tides you would see all year long."
Lindsey added that while a rise in sea level by a foot or two may seem like a relatively small amount, it can have significant consequences along the coast.
Lindsey warned that the greatest risks could occur if a dangerous combination of meteorological events all take place at the same time.
"Worst case scenario, if we were in the middle of the king tide, and we had a Kelvin wave, and we had storm runoff and storm surge and high waves, there's potential for a lot of disruptions and a lot of damage throughout the county," said Lindsey. "That's why it's so important to be prepared for this upcoming El Niño."
The potential impacts extend all around the Tri-Counties area with other coastal communities throughout San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara and Ventura counties also potentially vulnerable.
