Toss-up congressional races in liberal California could determine House control

AP Political Writer

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Republicans have been fading away in California for years, but the state has emerged again as an unlikely national battleground with the GOP dueling over a string of U.S. House seats that could be crucial to determining which party controls the chamber next year.

Democrats have long dominated government in the nation’s most populous state, where they hold every statewide office, have a commanding margin in the Legislature and congressional delegation and outnumber registered Republicans by nearly 2-to-1. The last Republican to win a U.S. Senate race in the state was in 1988.

But pockets of conservative strength remain, and Republicans hold 12 of California’s 52 House seats. About half a dozen races are considered toss-ups this year, and the most competitive races are in Republican-held districts that were carried by then-candidate Joe Biden in 2020.

Which way they go could be decisive, since only a handful of votes currently separate the rival parties in the House — there are 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats and three vacancies. Two years ago California similarly played a pivotal role in securing the majority for Republicans.

Democrats are likely to benefit from an elevated turnout in a presidential election year with Vice President Kamala Harris, a former U.S. senator from California and state attorney general, leading the party’s ticket. But how that will play out in closely divided swing districts is less clear.

The election is taking place at a time when voters are anxious over inflation, housing costs and a long-running homelessness crisis. Polling has found that most voters say the state is heading in the wrong direction.

The key races:

Former Navy pilot defends district north of Los Angeles

Rep. Mike Garcia is in another tough race. The last Republican congressman anchored in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County, Garcia, a former Navy pilot who flew over 30 combat missions during Operation Iraqi Freedom, has displayed a surprising ability to beat the odds in a district with an 11-point Democratic registration edge.

This time he’s being challenged by Democrat George Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff who has the support of national Democrats.

The once-conservative 27th District runs through suburbs and high desert north of Los Angeles. Garcia, a supporter of former President Donald Trump with a conservative voting record, first won election campaigning against California’s liberal-leaning government: “I don’t want my country to turn into what my state has become,” he said at the time.

Whitesides, who is also a former CEO of Virgin Galactic, says he’d use his business experience to solve problems. He has spotlighted Garcia’s opposition to abortion rights, calling him an extremist. Garcia put out a statement to clarify his position: “I oppose a national abortion ban — California’s law on abortion stays the law — and I support exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother.”

National Republicans have run ads attacking Whitesides as soft on crime. Garcia, like other GOP candidates, has been faulting his rival and other Democrats on inflation and taxes.

An open seat in what was once “Reagan country”

The 47th District, which includes Huntington Beach and other famous surf breaks, is represented by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, a progressive favorite who narrowly defeated former Republican legislator Scott Baugh in 2022.

Porter stepped aside to mount a U.S. Senate run that came up short, and Baugh is making another run for the seat, this time against Democratic legislator Dave Min.

Orange County was once considered bedrock conservative turf, a foundation block in the rise of the Reagan revolution. But the county southeast of Los Angeles has become more demographically diverse and Democratic over time, like much of California. It’s now split about evenly between Democrats and Republicans, and national Republicans have called the seat a top target for the House.

Min ads call Baugh a pro-Trump “extremist” who would endanger abortion rights. Baugh says Min’s “extreme liberal views” are out of step with the district.

California’s longest-serving House Republican wants another term

Rep. Ken Calvert is the longest-serving Republican in the state’s congressional delegation, first elected in 1992. Two years ago he held off Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, in the 41st District, east of Los Angeles, by about 5 points. Rollins is trying again.

The 41st is about equally divided between Republicans and Democrats. The race is a priority for both parties, and Porter and former U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer have been among the high-profile Democrats raising money for Rollins.

National Republicans have been calling Rollins an “extreme liberal.” Calvert has the advantages of incumbency, but his conservative credentials and support from Trump could be liabilities in a district that includes many transplanted Los Angeles residents and the city of Palm Springs, which has a large concentration of LGBTQ+ voters. Rollins is gay.

Farm belt Republican defends seat on Democratic turf

Rep. David Valadao is an anomaly — an elected Republican in a heavily Democratic district in a heavily Democratic state.

By the numbers, the Central Valley’s 22nd District should be a stronghold for Democrats, who hold a 14-point edge over Republicans in registration. But Valadao has kept a grip on the seat despite facing steep registration deficits.

Democrat Rudy Salas, who lost to Valadao in 2022, is trying again this year.

Valadao held the seat from 2013 until 2019, lost it for a term, then won it back in a 2020 rematch with Democrat T.J. Cox.

In a region sometimes called America’s salad bowl for its vast agricultural production, Valadao has been stressing his efforts to secure more water for farmers and his willingness to work across the aisle, while painting Salas as a tax-and-spend Democrat. “David has ignored partisan bickering and demonstrated his commitment to local priorities,” his campaign said in a fundraising pitch.

Salas, considered a moderate, has said Valadao is a Trump follower posing as a centrist. In Congress, he says, he will fight for lower drug prices, expanded health care and clean drinking water, the lack of which is a chronic problem in some rural communities.

After a 564-vote win in 2022, a rematch

Republican Rep. John Duarte captured his farm belt seat in 2022 over Democrat Adam Gray by one of the closest margins in the country, 564 votes. The are now in a rematch in the Central Valley’s 13th District.

Duarte often is listed among the most vulnerable House Republicans, given his narrow margin of victory. Another factor is the district’s Democratic tilt — about 11 points over registered Republicans.

There is a large Latino population, similar to other Central Valley districts, but the most likely voters statewide tend to be white, older, more affluent homeowners. Working-class voters, including many Latinos, are less consistent in getting to the polls.

Both candidates have been stressing bipartisan credentials.

Duarte, a businessman and major grape and almond farmer, has said his priorities include curbing inflation, crime rates and obtaining adequate water supplies for farmers in the drought-prone state.

Gray, a former legislator, has been critical of state water management and puts water and agriculture at the top of his issues list. He also says he wants improvements in infrastructure, renewable energy and education.

District created to empower Asians sees another tough fight

Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, a South Korean immigrant, is running for a third term in a Southern California district specifically drawn to give Asian Americans a stronger voice in Washington. Asian Americans, including the nation’s largest Vietnamese community, are the largest group in the 45th District, which is anchored in Orange County.

Steel first won in 2020 and then again in 2022, by a 5-point margin. This year she is facing lawyer and worker rights advocate Derek Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees.

Democrats hold a 4-point registration edge in the district.

In Congress, Steel has been outspoken in resistance to tax increases and says she stands strongly with Israel in its war with Hamas. “As our greatest ally in the Middle East, the United States must always stand with Israel,” said said in a recent email. She has advocated for more police funding and spotlighted her efforts on domestic violence and sexual abuse.

Tran has warned of Republican threats to abortion rights — Steel opposes abortion with exceptions for rape, incest or to save the life of the pregnant woman, while not supporting a federal ban. Tran also says a Trump return to the White House would place democracy at risk.

In a campaign marked by its nasty tone, each candidate has accused the other of unethical conduct. The race will be watched nationally for hints about Asian American voters’ preferences.