A look inside how the National Weather Service forecasts storms

This week’s forecasted storms have people in areas hit hard by the Thomas Fire and Montecito mudslides on alert.

Reporter Alex Biston visited the National Weather Service in Oxnard to see how meteorologists coordinate with emergency officials when forecasting an upcoming storm.

“We realize that people are more on edge and more concerned,” said Warning Coordination Meteorologist, Eric Boldt. “We’ve always had a high concentration of focus on these different burn scars because we know that we can have significant debris flows.”

Boldt says their most accurate forecast comes just 72 hours before a storm approaches. That’s when their warning to emergency management officials of hazardous storm activity, often turn into more detailed time specific reports.

“When the storm and radar start to light up with precipitation, we’re on the phone,” said Boldt. “We’re calling them, giving them a heads up, so we’re always in contact.”

Boldt says a storm’s intensity is the key ingredient for debris flow and it’s something they monitor closely.

“If it’s raining for six hours and it’s not very intense, it really doesn’t matter too much but if it all comes down at once that is where we can start to see problems,” said Boldt.

That’s why there’s still concern after the Thomas Fire, since a large part of burn scar has yet to be hit by heavy rain.

“What they saw in Montecito is not out of the question for something like that to happen in some parts of Ventura county with the Thomas Fire,” said Boldt. “So we have to be on our toes this year and next year and possibly a third year depending on how much vegetation and regrowth we get.”