Measure P – Tale of Two Campaign War Chests

Its one of the most talked about issues on the November ballot in Santa Barbara County.

If passed by a simple majority of county voters, Measure P would effectively shutdown all future, “high-intensity” oil and gas extraction production in the unincorporated areas of the County with some exemptions.

The ban would include fracking and steam injection.

The “No on P” Campaign is vastly outspending the “Yes on P” campaign in media ads.

The latest campaign finance numbers from the Santa Barbara County Elections Office has the Yes on P campaign with about $95,000 in donations and the No on P campaign with nearly $1,950,000 in donations, and counting.

The Yes on P campaign says most of its war chest comes from small, individual donations, the No on P campaign says its donations also come from county taxpayers, landowners as well as the oil and gas industry.

Localpolitical observers say contentious ballot measures like Measure P will come down to money and voter turnout in a mid-term election year.

“You need as large a voter turnout as you can of informed voters and that’s two difficult things to do this mid-term election in 2014”, says Allan Hancock College Political Science Instructor Day Payne, “the ballot is so large, the measure is so large, its hard to inform the voters so they really understand what they are voting for and secondly, to get them to get out and vote because it’s a not a presidential election.”

Payne says money will play a role in the Measure P outcome.

“With that it comes down to a north-south county issue, south county could care less about the economy of the north county, and the north county, it’s a way of life up here with the oil industry, has been for over a century, and many people feel very strongly about it”, Payne says, “so its going to probably come down to, can the north county turn out more voters than the south county because the south county is going to vote with the environmentalists, it’s a rule, they are more liberal, and would vote with them.”

The stakes are high for both sides of the Measure P campaign.

“The No on P Campaign is a professionally run campaign”, says No on P spokesperson Jim Byrne, “we are out there to make sure that we get the information out to as many voters as possible and inform the voters of how bad Measure P would be for the county.”

The No on P campaign is running television, internet, direct mail and print ads.

“Its the loss of jobs, the loss of income in tax revenues to the county”, Byrne says, “that is supported by many local agencies, Santa Barbara County Fire is on board with this, the Deputy Sheriff’s Aassociation, many of the Chambers of Commerce, they understand how bad Measure P would be if it passed in the county.”

“The unfortunate thing so far is a lot of the message that has been put out by the No on P people is about losing jobs, no jobs are going to be lost by this”, says Yes on P supporter Dennis Allen, “because all of the existing extraction is going to be allowed to remain, so there is no change in that.”

Allen says the No on P claim of a loss in tax revenue to the County of Santa Barbara is also inaccurate.

“They are making a lot of statements about our tax base that will be impacted by this”, Allen says, “there is going to be no change in our tax base because the amount of oil extraction that is going on right now that feeds into our tax base to some extent will continue, so its really protecting us from a big expansion of what’s been going on so far.”

Allen says the Yes on P campaign has so far not been able to raise enough money to run television or internet ads but feels confident in the campaign’s current “get out the vote” strategy.

“We’ve been mobilizing people, we have a lot of passionate volunteers, we’re also trying to raise money, so far we have collected about $120,000”, Allen says, “we’ve spent about $40,000 of that so we have about $80,000 in cash and that is being used primarily to telephone voters, to send out mailers and to walk the neighborhoods.”

Allen acknowledges how the No on P campaign is outspending and perhaps reaching voters the Yes on P campaign is not.

“Its really a David and Goliath kind of struggle”, Allen says, “this is really a campaign of the local people trying to protect our county and water resources and damage to the environment as opposed to a few people making a lot of money off of additional oil extraction.”

The No on P campaign says its professional, aggressive ad campaign is designed with a specific goal in mind.

“The No on P campaign is out there to make sure that we get the information to the voters”, Byrne says, “really inform them of how devastating Measure P would be to the county and to the residents of Santa Barbara County.”

Vote by Mail, or absentee, ballots go out to County voters four weeks before the November election.

Political Science instructor and long time Santa Barbara County political observer Dan Payne says the Measure P vote may not be known until after polls close on election night.

“Surveys have found that conservative Republicans which are usually an older population still cling to the old ways and they vote at the precinct polling places rather than voting by mail”, Payne says, “where the young, voter which tends to be more liberal, will vote by mail.”