Putin’s latest election meddling effort failed. It’s unlikely to stop him trying again

Analysis by Clare Sebastian, CNN

(CNN) — As Moldova’s pro-EU president Maia Sandu celebrated victory in the early hours of Monday morning, in an election campaign she claimed involved “unprecedented” interference by Moscow, pro-Kremlin voices in Russia turned to the next page in their playbook: casting doubt on the result.

Sandu narrowly won a second presidential term in Sunday’s runoff vote, beating former prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglu. According to Moldova’s Central election commission, with 100% of votes counted, Sandu had 55% of the total.

Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, lamented the “disgraceful organization” of the election in a post on Telegram Monday, claiming the opportunity to vote overseas was “exclusively” provided to those who supported “one candidate” (implying Moldova provided more opportunities to vote to the diaspora in European countries, who typically favor Sandu, than to Moldovan citizens in Russia, who may have favored her opponent, who had promised friendlier ties to Moscow).

Another senior Russian senator, Andrey Klishas, took a similar line, suggesting Moldova had actively falsified the diaspora vote, which proved decisive in Sandu’s victory. “You count the votes, understand how many are lacking from the ‘correct’ candidate, and bring in the necessary number from overseas polling stations,” he wrote on Telegram Monday.

The Kremlin has officially denied accusations by Moldova that it orchestrated and funded a widespread interference campaign ranging from disinformation and cyber attacks to simple vote-buying to try to influence not only the presidential election but a referendum on October 20 on whether to enshrine Moldova’s intention to join the European Union in its constitution. That referendum secured a “yes” vote with a less than 1% margin.

And yet Moscow had a lot to gain from installing a Russia sympathizer in Chisinau and upending Moldova’s path to EU membership.

Russia already has a small military presence in Transnistria, an unrecognized breakaway republic in Moldova that borders Ukraine. Geographically, that region offers a potential staging ground for Russian attacks on Ukraine. But the concern for Moldova is that Russian intentions go beyond Ukraine.

In February, Transnistria appealed to Moscow for “protection” from what they claimed were threats from Moldovan authorities, echoing Russian claims of a similar appeal from Ukraine’s Donbas region, which Moscow used as part of its justification for its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Another region in Moldova’s south, Gagauzia, is also keen to build closer ties with Moscow. Its leader, a regular visitor to Russia, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in March.

In his congratulatory note to Sandu Monday, US President Joe Biden declared “Russia failed” in its attempt to undermine Moldova’s democracy. But both the tight victory for Sandu and Moldova’s electoral calendar in the year ahead offer clear incentives for Moscow to keep up the pressure.

News coverage in Russia is already emphasizing the fact that Sandu narrowly lost the election within Moldova but secured victory due to an unprecedented turnout by Moldova’s large expat population — more than 80% of which voted for her.

In her victory speech, Sandu acknowledged the divisions in the country, promising to be “the president for all of you.”

She now has less than a year to address those divisions before parliamentary elections next summer, which many fear could be another target for Moscow.

Lithuania’s foreign ministry wrote on X Monday, “With parliamentary elections around the corner, (the) EU should do its best to help Moldova investigate all of Russia’s malign interference & bring its perpetrators to justice.”

Recent parliamentary elections in Georgia, where the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party secured victory amid widespread reports of Russian interference, may have also given Moscow a taste of success.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is breathing a sigh of relief at the results of Moldova’s election.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky immediately called to congratulate Sandu, vowing to strengthen the two country’s partnership.

And yet, Moldova looks at Ukraine with growing trepidation. Russia is currently advancing in the east in what Ukraine’s commander-in-chief described as “one of the most powerful Russian offensives since the start of the war.”

Attacks on Odesa and Ukraine’s Danube ports have already brought the war far too close for comfort for Chisinau.

Overnight into Monday, as Moldova counted its final votes, Romanian fighter jets took off less than 40 miles from Moldova’s southern border after Russian drones approached its airspace. If Russia’s gains turn from tactical to strategic, Moldova faces a threat much bigger than election interference.

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