Mark Robinson may be on his way to a historic defeat in North Carolina

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN

(CNN) — It turns out that some things do matter in electoral politics.

CNN’s KFile reported last week on North Carolina Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson making inflammatory and racist remarks on a porn website’s message board. We now have polling data measuring the potential impact of that investigation on the race.

Robinson looks like he may suffer the largest defeat in more than 40 years for a major-party nominee for governor in North Carolina.

Our CNN/SSRS poll puts Democrat Josh Stein up 53% to Robinson’s 36% among likely Tar Heel State voters. The poll was conducted entirely after publication of the KFile story.

Notably, Stein’s 17-point advantage is larger than his lead in any poll taken this year. It is significantly larger than the 11- and 10-point leads Stein had in surveys from slightly earlier this month from Marist College and The New York Times/Siena College.

While our poll could be an outlier, it would make a lot of sense that Robinson’s worst survey comes after the devastating report that led to a lot Republican officials distancing themselves from the lieutenant governor.

A 17-point win for a Democratic nominee for governor would be nothing short of historic. The last North Carolina Democrat to win a gubernatorial race by more than Stein’s lead in the CNN poll was Gov. Jim Hunt in 1980.

A polling penalty for Robinson of 6 or 7 points fits with what we know about electoral penalties after a scandal. For example, a 538 analysis of past scandals that rocked congressional campaigns showed an average negative effect of 8 points.

A 17-point blowout would also be especially large given the closeness of the presidential race in the state. Our poll, like many before it, has the race tied between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. This would suggest that any fallout afflicting Robinson has not harmed Trump to any large degree — political history has shown that a down-ballot scandal rarely harms the top of the ticket.

The fact that the presidential-level polling in North Carolina appears similar to past surveys is also an indication that Robinson’s large deficit is not a statistical anomaly and likely represents the direct effect of KFile’s reporting.

Digging deeper into the latest CNN poll findings, the news is no better for Robinson. Stein has a larger share of the vote among both men and women, Black and White voters, every age group, those making above or below $50k, college and non-college graduates, independents and moderates.

The only groups among whom Robinson is leading are the GOP base of White non-college graduates, conservatives and Republicans.

Even among Republicans, however, Robinson only gets 74%. A quarter either say they’re voting for Stein (12%), another candidate (3%) or say neither (11%). Trump, for reference, pulls in 94% of the Republican vote in the presidential race. Stein gets 95% of Democrats in the gubernatorial race.

A good chunk of those sticking by Robinson may only be doing so because he is a Republican. His favorable rating among likely voters is a mere 27%. The clear majority, 53%, have an unfavorable view.

The fact that 80% of likely voters can form an opinion of Robinson is notable too. That is far higher than the 63% who can do so about Stein, despite his being the state’s attorney general. (Voters like Stein a lot more as indicated by his 40% favorable rating and 23% unfavorable rating.)

Opinions of Robinson among Republicans are better, but just 53% have a favorable view of him. A large minority, 25%, have an unfavorable opinion. Another 19% have heard of him but didn’t offer an opinion. It’s not hard to imagine that a lot of North Carolina Republican don’t want to speak ill of a fellow party member, but don’t want to give Robinson a thumbs-up, either.

The bottom line is that it’s tough to see any silver lining in the latest data for Robinson. Yes, he was likely to lose the race long before the scandal hit last week, as indicated by the polling all year.

Now, though, it doesn’t just look like Robinson is going to lose. It looks like he’s going to be humiliated at the ballot box.

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