Opinion: Putin’s lightning assault jolts Europe awake
Opinion by Frida Ghitis
(CNN) — It was a carefully choreographed show of force in Beijing Thursday as Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived for yet another meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. They were all smiles.
Meanwhile in Europe, the atmosphere could have hardly felt less jovial.
On Wednesday, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot multiple times and gravely wounded in an assassination attempt. Fico is reportedly out of danger now, with many details about the shooting still unclear. But the dramatic event added to the foreboding sense of crisis across the region; the feeling that, as tense as the situation is, it’s time to prepare urgently, because it might turn much worse.
In the 10 days since Putin was sworn in for yet another term — his fifth as Russia’s president — his forces launched a surprise attack on northeastern Ukraine, drawing close to the country’s second largest city, Kharkiv, and capturing several Ukrainian villages.
Russia’s lightning assault, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who cancelled all his foreign travel, aims to force Ukraine to stretch its defenses.
Tactically, Moscow’s push strengthened its field position ahead of the arrival of promised US weapons to Ukraine. Politically, it comes months before the possible return to power of former President Donald Trump, who has indicated he will not continue President Joe Biden’s level of support for Kyiv.
Echoing the alarm among Ukraine’s backers, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron called it an “extremely dangerous moment.” Russia, he said, had effectively “invaded again.”
Adding to the gloom, Europeans watched Putin allies in Georgia, a former Soviet Republic, ignore massive street protests and approve the so-called “foreign agents” bill, which is almost a carbon copy of one used by the Kremlin to crush the pro-democracy opposition. It was a victory for Moscow, and a defeat for the vast majority of Georgians who fervently want their country to join the democratic European Union.
Securing victories without going to war is cheaper. That’s why Moscow is meddling in Moldova, another former Soviet Republic hoping to join the European Union, and why there’s mounting evidence of ongoing Russian campaigns to interfere in the many elections playing out in Europe and elsewhere, injecting disinformation and stoking political tensions.
Interestingly, the Slovak foreign ministry accused Russia of interfering in the Slovakian elections that brought Fico — a Putin admirer — to power. (Moscow has denied the allegations.)
Speaking to the media outside the hospital treating Fico on Wednesday, the country’s interior minister warned that Slovakia stands “on the edge of civil war” due to political tensions. The minister also described the attack as politically motivated, saying the suspect told law enforcement officers that he disagreed with Fico’s policies.
What started as a Russian invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago has turned into an epochal challenge for Europe. With Russia advancing in Ukraine, this entire region is waking up to the fact that this conflict is about more than the survival of a former Soviet Republic. Every day, the stark reality that what began in Ukraine will change Europe for years to come becomes more inescapable.
Earlier this week in Moscow, Putin launched another surprise move, removing long-time Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. He replaced him with Andrey Belousov, a former government official who is an economist and well-versed in “military-industrial complex matters,” according to experts, suggesting that transforming Russia into a full-fledged war economy is now the plan.
Now Europe, too, is accelerating its own preparations, not only to support Ukraine, but to defend itself.
It wasn’t long ago that Ukraine appeared to have the upper hand, pushing Russia out of territories it invaded. Now all that has changed. When far-right Republicans in the US House of Representatives stalled a package of military aid for a long six months, Russia turned the tide.
The aid was approved last month, but it was too late. It will take some time for the aid to arrive, and even then, the imbalance in military supplies will continue.
Russia’s militarized economy, under a system that brooks no complaints, with Putin in full control, is not only receiving weaponry from Iran and North Korea and, according to the US, key help from China — which it denies, laughably claiming it is neutral. Russia is also producing three times as much artillery shells as Ukraine’s backers.
With Russian forces advancing, and with Putin framing the conflict as one against the West, Europe has launched a large-scale effort to prepare itself for the worst. When historians look back at this moment, they won’t be able to claim that Europe ignored the threat, even if the long post-Cold War decades, as we now know, were marked by excessive optimism about the enduring power of peace and democracy.
Norway, which shares a crucial border with Russia in the Arctic, is a member of NATO but not the EU. It just announced a massive 12-year military expansion plan. By 2036, its defense budget will double in size and its army will have triple the number of brigades.
In London, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak recently announced a big defense spending boost to move the country onto “a war footing.”
In the Netherlands, where outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte is a favorite to become NATO’s new chief, the defense budget is set to double, from $15.6 billion in 2022 when Russia launched the war — to $31.2 billion by 2029.
Perhaps most dramatically, French President Emmanuel Macron has refused to rule out sending Western troops into Ukraine. Earlier this month he said the question would legitimately arise if Russia breaks through the front line and Zelensky asks for reinforcements.
Macron’s comments have been rejected by European allies who remain afraid of provoking Putin into a direct confrontation.
In fact, that fear has become a major constraint for Ukrainian soldiers on the ground: The White House bans Ukraine from striking targets inside Russia with the weapons it provides. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the policy “is severely compromising Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian offensive operations,” in the Kharkiv region, creating a “sanctuary” for Russia for attacking Ukraine from the border areas.
It’s past time to loosen those restrictions. Ukraine should be allowed to defend itself, even if it means striking inside Russian borders. The cost of allowing Putin to subjugate Ukraine is, as is becoming increasingly clear, much too high.
Even as it rejects the notion of sending troops to Ukraine, Germany is apparently preparing to reintroduce mandatory military service. A leaked document revealed that Berlin is considering imposing conscription for 18-year-old men and women, a sign that the current crisis has become a turning point in views about national and regional security, with repercussions that will last for years, regardless of how and when this war ends.
Preparations for a possible war are most startling in Finland, which shares Europe’s longest border with Russia, and one that already lost territory to Kremlin invasions. Finland has built up not only its shelters for civilians and its stockpiles of weapons, ammunition and fuel, but also of grain to feed the population.
“Russia respects power,” said Finnish Lt. Gen. Mikko Heiskanen, describing a multi-year plan to prepare for defending the country.
Perhaps Putin and Xi find more reasons to smile right now, but Europeans want to make sure that is only a temporary situation.
The-CNN-Wire
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