Sinwar’s killing again raises hopes in Washington for an end to Israel’s war
Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN
(CNN) — President Joe Biden envisioned a “day after” for Gaza without Hamas in power following Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
But it’s just as likely that his demise does nothing to alter the Middle East’s tragic reality: The elimination of terrorist masterminds rarely solves conflicts rooted deep in history in a region where each war simply sows the bitter seeds for the next one.
Sinwar’s elimination, however, caused a hurried relaunch of Washington’s so-far frustrated attempts to end the war in Gaza that has caused a humanitarian catastrophe and is casting a shadow over Vice President Kamala Harris’ election hopes.
Hamas has just been dealt a huge military and psychological blow, even if Sinwar lacked the iconic status and strategic weight of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed earlier in Israel’s purge against its greatest enemies.
No one could doubt the blood that was on Sinwar’s hands — he plotted the horrific October 7, 2023, attacks in Israel that killed 1,200 people and led to the Israeli onslaught on Gaza in which 42,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Palestinian authorities. So, his absence could alter the diplomatic and strategic calculations at play.
Biden reacted to Sinwar’s death by declaring justice had been served and simultaneously cranked up pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to embrace the moment to end the fighting in Gaza. The president was quickly on the phone with his sometimes-estranged partner in Israel. And he issued the statement calling for “a ‘day after’ in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians.”
An impediment to peace has been removed
In the United States, Sinwar was seen as a major impediment to the Biden administration’s failed efforts to broker a ceasefire that would see the release of remaining hostages in Gaza and alleviate a disastrous humanitarian crisis. This is only half the story, since at times, US officials have suggested Netanyahu had interests in prolonging the war as well.
But if Sinwar’s death leads to the disintegration of Hamas and the end of a near two-decade stranglehold on Gaza, it would remove one of the most stubborn blocks to US peace efforts not just during this war but spanning four administrations. Such a scenario is distant, however, without any indication that whoever inherits Hamas’ leadership will degrade its mission of obliterating Israel. Many experts think guerrilla operations against Israeli forces are at least as likely as a decision by Hamas to halt the conflict.
But in the short-term, Biden is seeking to widen a window for the release of remaining hostages seized in the October 7 attacks and to ease the hideous humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Before Sinwar’s death was reported, Washington on Wednesday warned Israel it must let more aid into the enclave, where the UN says more than 1 million people face starvation and diseases like polio are rampant. The White House believes that ending the war in Gaza is a precondition for lessening the chances of a disastrous regional war that it dreads. And Biden has strong personal imperatives to finally tone down a conflict that will stain his legacy and that he may hand to his successor in January.
As Biden maneuvered, Netanyahu seemed to keep his options open. “Whoever lays down his weapon and returns our hostages – we will allow him to go out and live,” he said in an address to Israelis. But he also told his people, “The war, my dears, is not over yet.”
“This is no doubt a fork in the road for Israel and the region,” Firas Maksad, senior director at the Middle East Institute, told Jessica Dean on CNN Max. “It is also a moment of truth for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Are his priorities to begin de-escalating in Gaza and in Lebanon? Is really his object to release … Israeli hostages still held in Gaza? Or is there a moment he sees that he wants to reset the table in the Middle East and readdress the balance of power thereby continuing to persecute this war against it and its proxies?”
As has often been the case during the war in Gaza, US officials expressed optimism that something significant had shifted. CNN’s Kayla Tausche reported there were hopes that Netanyahu was coming closer to common ground with Biden. Optimism is a precondition for the toughest diplomatic initiatives. But consistently over the last year, the Biden administration has misread Netanyahu’s intent, with its optimism exposed as naïveté and Biden’s prestige shaken by his unwillingness to use America’s immense leverage over Israel’s chief protector.
Much depends on Netanyahu’s next move
Officials will be watching over the next few days to see whether Netanyahu will use Sinwar’s demise to forge an opening and to prioritize the return of hostages. Repeatedly, when confronted with a politically dicey choice that could weaken the most ultra conservative coalition in Israeli history, the prime minister has chosen political self-preservation — one reason why US mediation efforts failed.
A decision now to deal with what is left of Hamas could finally ease the pressure he faces from the families of Gaza hostages if it leads to their release. But any choice that does not involve the total eradication of Hamas first, whatever the cost, could anger the prime minister’s right-wing governing partners.
There has also been a philosophical and strategic disconnect over the war between Netanyahu and Biden, who urged Israel soon after the October 7 attacks not to repeat America’s mistakes after September 11, 2001, by getting drawn into prolonged wars. Officials in Washington see a wider picture that encompasses Israel’s need to repair its security after October 7 but also the civilian carnage in Gaza and the impact of Netanyahu’s decisions on vital US interests and the regional tinderbox.
But Netanyahu has left no doubt that he believes he’s fighting a decisive battle for the existence of Israel and the Jewish people – a view that conditions his choices and is unlikely to change with Sinwar’s death. That struggle leaves no room for the push to address Palestinian self-determination and long-term security arrangements with Israel that the US and much of the rest of the world sees as the only way to resolve a wider conflict with roots early in the last century.
How the Middle East conflict is entwined with the US election
The proximity of the US election and the unprecedented impact of the war on US politics have rendered distrust and tension between the White House and the Israeli government even more acute.
Fury among Arab Americans and progressives over the Israeli assault on Gaza – and anger Biden didn’t stop it – could cost Harris the swing state of Michigan and hand the presidency to Donald Trump. This explains why the Democratic nominee was quick to weigh in on Thursday during a trip to another battleground state, Wisconsin. “This moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza, and it must end such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends,” the vice president said. “And the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination, and it is time for the day after the war to begin without Hamas in power.”
Harris’ comments demonstrated the balance she’s trying to strike between honoring traditional US foreign policy on Israel, avoiding angering moderate and Jewish voters and acknowledging the terrible human toll of Israel’s offensive. By implication, her statement also reflected her powerlessness to meaningfully influence a foreign crisis that could end her dreams of the presidency. And like many of her comments on this war and foreign policy generally, Harris expressed laudable aspirations while offering few suggestions for how they might ever be reconciled.
A ceasefire deal in the waning days of the campaign would at least offer Harris a chance to argue to disaffected Democrats in Michigan that finally, the administration had made a breakthrough that would save Palestinian lives. But such is the agony of Arab Americans forced to watch a year of civilian horror in Gaza from afar, it’s questionable how many votes would change at this late stage.
Since Netanyahu is such an enthusiastic Washington power player himself, it would not be surprising if his calculations were also influenced by the US campaign playing out in a handful of swing states.
Netanyahu has assured the US that his looming response to Iran’s latest ballistic missile strikes will not target nuclear and oil installations, a person familiar with the discussions told CNN this week. If he keeps his word, some analysts will interpret his restraint, such as it is, as an attempt to avoid alienating the possible next president, Harris. If he doesn’t, such attacks could ignite a global crisis and devastate Harris’ chances in an election in which Trump is warning that World War III is imminent.
Netanyahu has left little doubt that he favors Trump, who gave him a blank check in his four-year term. If the former president wins the election, he will effectively drain whatever power lame-duck Biden has for dealing with Netanyahu. Why would the Israeli leader take steps that would enhance the current president’s legacy when he might expect more favorable treatment under the 47th president in January?
Identifying a new day is one thing for Biden. Infusing it with any meaning is another. While a ceasefire would be a massive achievement in the waning weeks of his term, there is not much precedent in recent years for administrations making significant progress in the Middle East in their final days. Former President Bill Clinton’s exhaustive drive for a final status peace deal failed at a two-week Israeli-Palestinian summit in the summer of 2000.
If Harris wins on November 5, there would be continuity between the outgoing Biden administration and the next White House team. This perhaps augurs well for one final triumph in the outgoing president’s 50 years as a global statesman.
But if there’s one political lesson from the last year, it’s that Washington’s capacity to influence events in the Middle East these days — even when they reverberate strongly in this country’s fractured politics — is severely limited.
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