Ann Selzer to end election polling after 16-point miss in final Iowa survey

By Liam Reilly, CNN

New York (CNN) — Famed pollster J. Ann Selzer will end her election polling operation after her final survey for The Des Moines Register failed to accurately capture former President Donald Trump’s strong support in the 2024 election, resulting in a 16-point miss.

Selzer’s announcement comes after the Register in its final poll before Election Day delivered a bombshell result showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 47-44% among likely voters in the state, raising speculation that Harris could mount a stunning upset. While other surveys had found Trump comfortably ahead of Harris in the state, Selzer’s poll raised Democrats’ hopes in the final days of the race and was widely reported by other outlets.

Trump ultimately swept to victory over Harris in the state by a 13-point margin, winning the actual vote 56-43%. Selzer later acknowledged her poll was a “big miss” and suggested that her poll might have “actually energize[d] and activate[d] Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory.”

Kristin Roberts, chief content officer of Gannett Media, which owns the Des Moines Register, told CNN in a statement that the Iowa Poll will “evolve as we find new ways to accurately capture public sentiment and the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues.”

“Our mission is to provide trusted news and content to our readers and the public,” Roberts said. “We did not deliver on that promise when we shared results of the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, which did not accurately capture the outcome of the presidential election.”

Since its founding in 1943, the Iowa Poll has offered insight into how voters in the state intend to cast their ballots. Selzer began working on the poll in 1987 as a staffer for the Register before founding her own firm, Selzer & Co. of West Des Moines, which has conducted the poll on a contract basis since 1997.

Prior to the 2024 survey, the Iowa Poll had been considered by many to be the methodological gold standard. In the six other presidential elections Selzer has overseen, the poll has only missed the winner once (finding Democrat John Kerry up 3 points ahead of the 2004 election, when Republican George W. Bush ultimately won the state by less than a point), and its largest previous error on the margin came in 2008, when the final poll before the election found Barack Obama ahead by 17 points, significantly larger than his eventual 10-point win. As of June 2024, election forecaster Nate Silver gave Selzer an A+ rating.

In an op-ed for the Register, Selzer said that her decision to end her polling work predated the erroneous results.

“Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” Selzer wrote.

Selzer said she would have preferred the announcement follow a “final poll aligned with Election Day results,” noting in her column that “it’s ironic that it’s just the opposite” but that she remains “proud of the work I’ve done for the Register.”

“Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings,” Selzer wrote. “My integrity means a lot to me. To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade.”

In a separate column for the Register published on Sunday, executive editor Carol Hunter wrote that Selzer had discussed a timetable for “winding down her work on the poll” over the last few years and confirmed that Selzer had given her notice over a year ago, saying that she would “not renew when her 2024 contract ended with [the] publication of the pre-election poll.”

The Register needs to “find new ways to accurately take the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues,” Hunter wrote. “Our intention is to reimagine how to best capture public sentiment and opinion among Iowans to provide valuable and accurate insight into legislative issues and politics.

This story has been updated with additional information.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2024 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.