What we know on Day 31 of the US and Israel’s war with Iran: Trump threatens escalation if no deal reached

By Jessie Yeung, Issy Ronald, CNN

(CNN) — Even as regional leaders scramble to find diplomatic off-ramps to the war, the main players — Israel, the United States and Iran — are doubling down on their positions.

In a Truth Social post, President Donald Trump threatened to “completely obliterate” all of Iran’s energy sources if a deal isn’t reached to end the war.

He had earlier claimed Iran is almost ready for a deal, even as Tehran denied that and warned it will “rain fire” on American troops if they launch a ground invasion.

Here’s what to know on Day 31.

What are the main headlines?

• Trump’s threats: Trump claimed the US was in “serious discussions” with a “new” regime in Iran and threatened to “completely obliterate” the country’s energy sources if “a deal is not shortly reached.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio later claimed there were “fractures” within Iran’s leadership but declined to name the specific people the US is negotiating with. Trump’s former national security adviser dismissed claims the White House is negotiating with a more moderate regime as “just delusional.”
• Tehran’s rebuttal: Contradicting both Trump and Rubio, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said there are currently no direct negotiations between the US and Iran. Messages have only been relayed through intermediaries, he claimed. The White House says Tehran’s pessimistic public comments do not reflect private messages being passed between the two sides.
• Iran’s oil: Trump’s latest Truth Social post came the morning after he raised the prospect of the US taking Iran’s oil in an interview with the Financial Times, saying that would be his “favorite thing.” He also told the FT he is still considering whether to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, a key fuel transit hub rather than an oil field, adding that US forces would likely need to remain there for an extended period.
• Washington’s demands: Also on Sunday, Trump said Iran had agreed to “most of” the 15-point list of demands that the US conveyed to end the war, after “having very good meetings, both directly and indirectly.” Tehran contradicted that on Monday as a spokesperson lambasted the US demands as “largely excessive, unrealistic and unreasonable.” Trump claimed that Iran has given the US “20 boatloads of oil” that will be shipped on Monday to “prove they’re serious.”
• Iran’s warning: Iran’s parliament speaker accused the US of “secretly planning a ground invasion” while floating negotiations, and he said Tehran’s forces are “waiting” for US troops. The USS Tripoli — carrying 3,500 US service members — has arrived in the Middle East, after CNN reported earlier this month that a Marine Expeditionary Unit would be deployed. Such units have traditionally been used for missions that require ship-to-shore movements.
• Diplomatic efforts: Pakistan says it is prepared to host talks between the US and Iran “in coming days,” after what it called a “very productive” meeting with leaders from Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to discuss efforts to de-escalate the war.
• Energy costs: Oil prices climbed after Tehran’s warning against any US ground invasion, with Brent crude rising 2.47% to $107.92. Asian stocks fell on Monday. Asia is the first continent to suffer from the effects of an oil shortage, but Europe, Africa and the US are next, a JPMorgan report warned.

What’s happening on the ground?

• Infrastructure strikes: Infrastructure came under attack over the weekend, as both sides engaged in a tit-for-tat pattern of strikes. An Indian worker was killed in Kuwait on Monday after a building at a power and water desalination plant was damaged in an Iranian attack, the Kuwait News Agency reported. Over the weekend, two major aluminum facilities, one in Bahrain and one in the United Arab Emirates, were also attacked. And a huge blaze broke out at an industrial site in Israel after an attack. Meanwhile in Iran, Israeli strikes damaged two steel plants on Friday. Buildings at an engineering university in Tehran were also damaged by a strike, geolocated videos show.
• Lebanon border: Israel is pushing farther into southern Lebanon, where Israeli forces are exchanging fire with Hezbollah. Israeli forces are occupying the land south of the Litani River, an area it has called on Lebanese civilians to evacuate. Human rights workers have warned that Israel’s demolition of river crossings will cut off tens of thousands of Lebanese residents from “essential lifelines.”
• US aircraft destroyed: An Iranian strike on an air base in Saudi Arabia appears to have destroyed a vital US Air Force E-3 Sentry aircraft. Images of the wrecked aircraft began appearing on social media over the weekend, which CNN geolocated to the Prince Sultan Air Base. The loss could damage US abilities to spot incoming Iranian threats, analysts say.
• Civilian toll: One-fifth of Lebanon’s population has been displaced by Israel’s operations there in the last three weeks, UNICEF said. The war has forced an average of 19,000 children every day to flee their homes, leaving them traumatized, the organization added. Several UN peacekeepers have been killed and others injured in southern Lebanon on Monday and over the weekend. Separately, at least two people were killed by a strike on an orphanage west of Tehran, Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported.
• Houthi intervention: Israel said early Monday that it intercepted two drones from Yemen, after the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels waded into the conflict for the first time. This comes after Israel’s military carried out strikes on the Iranian capital, Tehran, late Sunday, claiming it is just days away from hitting all the targets in Iran that it classifies as “top priority.”
• Marine traffic: More ships from Pakistan, China and India are passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping data, but still far fewer than before the US and Israel first struck Iran. The Trump administration has heralded the movement of the tankers as a sign of successful diplomacy.

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